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Bill Astore's avatar

In retrospect, I got one big thing right and one wrong here. I was right: the Afghan surge was doomed to fail. But what I didn't realize was that its failure didn't matter. What mattered was that Obama showed his obedience to Washington rules. He showed he'd largely defer to the Pentagon and the generals. His deference, his willingness to play the game rather than trying to end it, probably ensured his second term as president.

Yes, the surge was a failure, and the Afghan War would last another 12 years. But Obama easily won a 2nd term by showing he could wage war just like his predecessors, Bush/Cheney.

So, how was Joe Biden finally able to end the Afghan War in 2021? Two reasons. He could blame the Trump administration for putting him in an untenable position, and he could neutralize Pentagon opposition by giving them even more money even as he pulled troops from Afghanistan. Instead of the Pentagon budget decreasing by roughly $50 billion, the yearly cost of the Afghan War, it increased by that amount even as that war finally crashed and burned. There was never, ever, any talk of peace dividends, and once Russia invaded Ukraine early in 2022, vast increases in U.S. and NATO military spending were guaranteed. And so today's Pentagon budget soars toward $900 billion, which doesn't even include aid to Ukraine.

If Biden wins a 2nd term in 2024, it may be largely because he's shown himself to be a slavish servant of the military-industrial-congressional complex and the national security state.

Matthew Hoh's avatar

Thank you for saying this then Bill and thank you for saying what you say today.

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