Revealingly, PBS has two experts who are for the war, and one expert (John Mearsheimer) who rightly argues the war is already lost for Ukraine.
The female expert is especially bold in calling for expanded attacks by Ukraine on Russia using U.S.-provided weaponry. Dead Russians don't seem to matter, nor does the danger of serious escalation.
It was good to see Mearsheimer providing some sense and sanity here.
This morning, I saw another recycling of the phrase, "Putin has already lost." Mercifully, behind a paywall, I couldn't read it, and thus neither could any other non-subscribers. As New Testament adages go, another comes to mind, "A house divided cannot stand." If this is true, two things come to mind. Ukraine is a complete mess at every level. It cannot stand. The USA is so increasingly hostile unto itself, it too, cannot stand in its current form. (And the lapdogs of Western Europe seem all too content to let us drag their past decades of peace and prosperity down with us.)
On the other hand, Russia, despite massive Western efforts, seems to be moving from strength to strength. Slowly, but surely. And somehow, Putin, in choosing his words, can refrain from name calling Biden an SOB. I hate that term for the denigration to the mothers who bore such scoundrels--be she innocent or complicit with how they turn out as men. But if we are to label evil men as thugs, murderers or SOBs (if you must), then surely, we must go yet again to the New Testament, "Get the plank out of your own eye!"
My mother passed away in 1996 but sometimes she had a motor mouth that wouldn't stop.
She was visiting me at my apartment and she was in one of those periods. It was terrible to endure, so I told her I was going out.
With her diminutive size, she followed me to the door, her motor mouth in overdrive wagging her finger, and without thinking blurted out, "you son of a bitch!"
My reply was, " Mom, what can I say to that? I'm just going out until you calm down and I'll be back. I love you!"
Bill, you appear to bend over backwards in soft-pedaling even the proximal causes of the Ukraine war, e.g. in suggesting that Russia and Ukraine had been feuding since 2014, with U.S. meddling furthering the tensions. One less familiar with the history would not glean from that the fact that the very reason for the Ukr.-Russe tensions was the coup that was substantially engineered by Washington's neocons, who have driven the State Dep't (and other agencies') foreign policy now for decades, through the Administrations of both Republican and Democratic Presidents. They wouldn't know that the same neocons who sold the Iraq invasion on deliberate lies were behind the coup and selection of the installed replacement puppet government.
Nor would they know that this coup was begun almost immediately after the announcement of a peace and security deal between those nations, which would have ensured continued peace (and military neutrality for Ukraine) for decades. The implications of that fact alone, but also accompanied by the facts that a) Ukraine would as a result become even closer tied economically to Russia and to its natural gas; and b) NATO's further expansion to Russia's western border would be obstructed, were anathema to U.S. hegemonic interests with respect to financial and military hegemony as well as U.S. control over global fossil fuels markets.
One overarching U.S. concern, of course, was that such an agreement would make more difficult the achievement of the neocons' (and their tool NATO)'s objective of constraining Russia's economic growth and thereby its achievement of peer status within Eurasian affairs.
An hegemonic Empire must have no equals and must allow no break with the unwritten but imposed rules within its "Rules Based Order".
In this piece I think you also equivocate about the status of Ukraine's armed forces and the war itself.
Most international observers not already fully aligned with the western / NATO / Atlantic Council camp, including many former U.S. military and intel officers, have concluded that Russia has already accomplished to a significant degree what it had set out to do in Feb. 2022.
Though it now controls a substantial part of E. Ukraine, for Russia's leadership, this was never about expansion of its territory, as the 8 years of its ignored pleas for negotiations had consistently made clear; but rather, about the security of its own borders, the continued Black Sea access via its nearly 250-year-old port and naval base at Sevastopol, and the protection of ethnic Russians in the Donbass. Its goal put most simply, has been the demilitarization of Ukraine and especially of its ultranationalist, neo-Nazi forces.
Furthermore, though the threats are not completely gone, and the Biden Administration continues to try to prolong this war "as long as "it" takes" (and that's deliberately vague, weasel language for saying, we want to prolong the war as long as possible"), Russia has already succeeded in the first goal of reducing, if not completely eliminating the threats related to Ukraine's war on and ethnic cleansing of the Donbass. The Azov battalions are not fully eradicated, but they've been largely chased out for at least the time being.
The outcome is indeed, all but certain, though the exact form of its resolution is unclear. Ukraine never had the ability, even with the past commitments of NATO-aligned states, to 'win' this easily preventable, but U.S.- sought (as the 2019 Rand Corp. memo suggests) war. In fact, the only (or at least biggest) remaining questions that I see are as follows:
1) How much longer can and will the U.S. and its NATO partners/vassal States continue to deliver arms and money, without committing their own citizens' bodies, in order to keep the war going? That will be in part a function of how much more tolerance there is among the electorates of Germany, France,the UK and others, for the economic impacts of this war.
2) Whether the NATO States will cross any further Russian security 'red lines' in the escalation of weaponry (including the long-range missiles Biden is considering sending; And if they do somehow manage to sufficiently threaten Russia's population and its national security, will escalation to nuclear weapons be triggered by any party?
3) How much farther West into Ukraine Russia will have to seize and control in order to obviate such threats (and whether that will require decapitation- as in the taking of Kyiv, and how much of a rump state will be left of "Ukraine")?;
4) How much of a population of Ukrainians will remain by the time any negotiated settlement occurs?
5) Who will undertake (if at all) the rebuilding of a structurally and institutionally devastated Ukraine? And how will THAT be funded- given that the U.S. has now greatly increased its national debt at the very time when its dollar hegemony via the currency exhange apparatus is weakening and its debt exposes its fundamental vulnerabilities and is followed by rapid inflation?
Lastly, I want to accentuate that last question / point, vis a vis your point that, "War may be the health of the state of the self-styled “arsenal of democracy...". While it's true that war spending fuels at a minimum the profits of the military industry (and this must to an extent also be applied to Russia (whose economy appears, by the way, to be MUCH stronger than the article implies), it isn't really healthy at all to the U.S.population in general. Sure, it helps keep the dollar temporarily afloat, in the short term maintaining the U.S. ability to spend and print more paper IOUs to back up its debt.
Yet the expansion of that debt in a world whose greater population appears more than ready to break away from the dollar's controls, means that long term (and in that I predict, not very distant future), the Washington-centered Empire will have effectively begun its contraction, with vast life changes forced upon an even-more disturbed citizenry.
And just in case you wonder, I liked the article and love the question: "Is America an arsenal of democracy, or just an arsenal?" ; though the very phrase, "arsenal of democracy" puts me on edge; for those who run the ship of state are highly interested in arsenals but appear disinterested in and even fearful of democracy
Perhaps that was a poor choice of words. I also recognize that it wasn't your intent to discuss the entirety of the story behind this tragic war. I'm probably prickly about the stories I do most often see, for their intentional omission of facts which if known might lead more of the public to question the wisdom of prolonging the killing.
not ''a poor choice of words" at all roger; too much 'soft-peddling' afoot here. it was what should have been said and repeated on multiple occasions on multifarious blogsites. your comprehensive coverage is profound and parlous appreciated.
I'm not an economic expert. Russia's economy seems stable to me but still relatively weak compared to the economies of Western countries, especially the U.S.
So, for example, Russia's GDP in 2023 ranked 11th in the world, far behind countries like the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, India, and the UK.
I know it's just one measure. As I said, I think the Russian economy is stable. "Strong" is relative. If you want to argue Russia is strong economically, perhaps you might cite some data.
Wiki: The economy of Russia has gradually transformed from a planned economy into a mixed market-oriented economy.[28] It has enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas.[29] In 2023, it was the world's 11th-largest economy by nominal GDP, 6th-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) according to IMF, and 5th-largest according to World Bank.[5]
Russia's vast geography is an important determinant of its economic activity, with the country holding a large share of the world's natural resources.[32] It has been widely described as an energy superpower;[33] as it has the world's largest natural gas reserves,[34] 2nd-largest coal reserves,[35] 8th-largest oil reserves,[36] and the largest oil shale reserves in Europe.[37] It is the world's leading natural gas exporter,[38] the 2nd-largest natural gas producer,[39] the 2nd-largest oil exporter[40] and producer[41] and third largest coal exporter.[42] Russia's foreign exchange reserves are the world's 4th-largest.[43] It has a labour force of roughly 70 million people, which is the world's 7th-largest.[44] Russia is the world's 3rd-largest exporter of arms.[45] The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 34% of Russia's federal budget revenues,[46] and up to 54% of its exports in 2021.[47][48]
Doesn't this data support that, in the coming decades of fossil fuel depletion, Russia has a strong future economy?
Thank You, Roger, for that list of Questions that every American still capable of thinking for her or himself needs to start asking Themselves, their Families and Loved Ones, their Friends and Neighbors, and their Colleagues, Cohorts, and Compeers.
And then their "Leaders" in Washington, DC; starting with The White House, and continuing with their two US Senators and their Representative in the House.
You also wrote: "... long term (and in that I predict, not very distant future), the Washington-centered Empire will have effectively begun its contraction... .".
The "Decline" Phase of The American Empire ~ and with it, America as a Nation-State has come to an end, Roger; and The "Fall" Phase has begun.
The Real Questions are: What happens Next? And exactly Who gets to determine that? And How do they go about determining that?
And You may find my earlier conversation with Jazzme about War being "The Health of The State" interesting.
Jeff, I suppose it's a matter of semantics and subjectivity about what signals or constitutes that moment when a decline accelerates to "falling" , and then, after the splat, demise. With nations, I suppose it's easier to write, after one is vanquished and, perhaps like Yugoslavia, irreparably broken into pieces, that its demise is fact. With an Empire, it probably takes a bit longer and the manifestations of its decline and fall are at first hard to see because of the scale and the number of complex, interconnected component systems - such as economic conditions, political changes, collapse of social institutions, infrastructural decay, etc. It doesn't all collapse at once and in entirety, but the process of degradation and decay can be seen more readily, and especially in retrospect.
So I can't argue your point that the "fall" has already begun. Certainly, anyone who's watched with even some degree of attention will have already noted the decline in a number of conditions for which metrics are already available. These range from our sliding position internationally, as indicated by such things like the Democracy Index, Happiness index, Health outcomes; avg. life expectancy(!); growth of national debt; the growth of the income and wealth gaps between the wealthiest few and the res.t. Then there is the fairly rapid growth of repressive measures and authoritarianism, now notably strong on the (neo)liberal side as well as the neoconservative one.
Witness Biden's "Disinfo Board", and the ramping up in the UK, EU and the U.S. of efforts to stop "hate speech" and 'disinformation' ) and its attacks on democratic principles (e.g., the admitted position of the DNC that it doesn't have to have a democratic process for nominating candidates; the rapid growth of the two facets of narrative control, propaganda and censorship, which are contradictory to and incompatible with freedom of information and speech; etc.).
Additionally, the emergence of BRICS, the comparative economic strength that Russia seems to be enjoying vis a vis that of various NATO nations, the antithesis of that for which the DC neocon architects of the Ukraine War were striving, and the growing pressures around the globe for autonomy from the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, is of course one of the most obvious signals.
All of these seem to be indicators of Imperial desperation and rapid decline signaling at least the beginning of the end for the Empire which emerged rather suddenly after WWII and has had a nearly 80 year run.
I suspect, however, that in their desperation to maintain the status quo (of hegemonic comfort) that the Empire has provided the self-anointing elites in particular, that the Empire will be seen more clearly and by more of the populous, as it tries to avert the inevitable. That suggests still more wars, accelerating debt, an increase in autocracy regardless of Party in power, gradually and possibly steadily climbing inflation (especially over the long term, though I expect that economic uncertainty will increase more certainly); a more unsettled population whose angst is driven by increasing precarity, etc.
Of course, none of that even begins to address the impacts of the other big threat that you (with my thanks) mention: the ecological collapse most immediately threatened by climate destabilization, that, if not at least rapidly mitigated, will upset the entirety of the global apple cart and lead to a scenario that I'm rather sure has never been experienced by any Empire.
As Bill and many of us have already noted, we (and definitely the younger gen's) are going to be in for an 'interesting' if very rough ride.
It was Biden who presided over the 2014 US/CIA Coup/Regime change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly government, installing the US UN-elected proxy anti-Russian Ukraine government. That's when the seeds for this WAR were planted.
That anti-Russian government immediately started shelling the majority Russian speaking UKRAINIANS in the East bordering Russia who voted for the Russian friendly government and refused to accept the US/CIA orchestrated Coup. From 2014 to 2022 there were some 14,000 UKRAINIAN Civilians in the East killed by the Ukraine government shelling, but that was not hyped big News in the West.
Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed the 13-point Minsk accord in February 2015.
The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2202 calling on all parties, to implement the 13-point agreement in February 2015. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, gathered in Minsk at the time, and issued a declaration of support for the deal.
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides
3. Monitoring and verification by the OSCE
4. To start a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledge their special status by parliamentary resolution.
5. A pardon and amnesty for people involved in the fighting
6. An exchange of hostages and prisoners.
7. Provision of humanitarian assistance.
8. Resumption of socio-economic ties, including pensions.
9. Restoration of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk.
12. Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk on terms to be agreed with their representatives.
13. Intensifying the work of a Trilateral Contact Group comprising representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.
To Putin's great disappointment, Ukraine and the Western signatories made no effort to implement the terms of Minsk II, and Germany's Merkel and France's Holland spilled the beans the the purpose of Minsk II was only to stall while NATO armed and trained Ukraine for the WAR NATO was determined to provoke with Russia.
Fast forward to December 2021 when Putin repackaged the agreed Terms of Minsk II in a draft Treaty submitted to the US for consideration the US rejected out of hand without any Diplomatic discussion at all.
In early 2022, Western MSM were reporting Russia had amassed some 140,0000 troops on the border without mentioning Ukraine amassed some 80,000 facing the Russian speaking Ukraine majority in the East resisting the 2014 CIA orchestrated Coup.
More than anyone else, only because The Kansas City Times was quoting me in the Historical record of September 13, 1976, publishing, "He wanted to bring to the Public’s attention an “idea being put out subtly and deceptively” by the government that we have to get prepared for a war with Russia” I went to the OSCE website to see what was happening with no. 3 of the 2015 Minsk II the week before the Russian SMO.
US Western MSM didn't report it because it conflicts with the incessant Western War Propaganda the Russian SMO was unprovoked. In the week before February 24, the Ukraine government increased shelling the Russian speaking Ukrainians with up to 2000 Truce violations a DAY. It was Ukraine that started the WAR, most probably as US direction, that provoked the Russian SMO to stop it.
We also know Russia and Ukraine initialled an agreement to stop the fighting in March, 2022 but the US lapdog Johnson went to Kiev with the instruction to not follow through with Russia because the US would arm and support Ukraine to fight Russia as long as it takes.
US/NATO claiming Russia wants to re-constitute the Soviet Union is fake US hype to sell more Weapons of Death & Destruction, preparing Americans and the World for the FINAL WAR to End ALL WARS, WWIII/Armageddon.
Vladimir Putin, "Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains."
New York Times 20 February 2000;
If the US wasn't so determined to weaken Russia, all the territory Ukraine lost in the WAR would still be part of Ukraine but for the US also presiding over the Gaza carnage perpetuating the WAR, when the US has the leverage to stop the slaughter by threatening to stop supplying Israel the bombs and cash.
Excellent comment, Ray, and thanks for adding some of the most important yet obscured details of the prelude to this war, Ray.
One very minor correction, if I may: the 14,000 deaths estimated (by OSCE?) in the first 8 years of the conflict included, if mermory serves, combatants (possibly including W. Ukrainian armed forces and militia, along with the non-combatant resident civilians - many of whom were likely killed by the routine shelling, over those eight years, by Ukraine of the Donbass region.
While I don't know if I've seen documentation re. the exact time of Ukraine's huge troop buildup on the Donbass border, the amassing of Russian troops in early 2022 appears to have been in direct response to Ukr.'s troop buildup.
The latter was accompanied, at the end of 2021 and in early 2022, by a rather sudden and significant amplification of the shelling. OCSE had documented that change... I saw a graph they'd put together that clearly showed that sudden and large increase.
So your point that " It was Ukraine that started the WAR, most probably as US direction, that provoked the Russian SMO to stop it" is right on the money. Given Russia's several ignored appeals for negotiations (even up to weeks before the SMO began), the only logical and honest conclusion is that Russia was provoked. I'd say, not only 'provoked', but perhaps more truthfully, forced into that decision.
The latter point, of having no other reasonable option, is furthered by the bigger picture that makes the existential threat to Russia more clear. A major part of that was the increasing talk, over multiple years, of NATO's expansion to Ukraine, and indeed, the U.S.'s declarations that it would happen. Of course, Russia itself had made clear over a much longer time that such an event would represent the crossing of a red line of security threats to Russia (which is IMO completely recognizable). But they weren't alone as that conclusion was also shared by many of America's best and brightest and most senior and experienced officers-diplomatic, intelligence, and military- as well as its most knowledgeable international relations scholars, and even members of Congress (Sen. Bill Bradley, for example). I've compiled a (partial) list of such people and their warnings. All warned over decades that this would be a stupid and highly dangerous act by the U.S. and its NATO tool. Yet there we - or our MICIMATT mis-leaders - were: pushing for it.
Every single past action and current sign was that Russia was about to be put into a position of defending against yet another major attack from the West via Ukraine. And to boot, this one would, just like the last, be led by Nazis! Once NATO set up the required weaponry on Russia's western border, in Ukraine, Russia would be vulnerable not only to missile attacks from Ukraine but also to nuclear blackmail, as ABMs would threaten to significantly undercut the nuclear deterrent capability that is part of the tenuous but until-recently functional Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) principle/doctrine that has likely kept the U.S. from another use of nuclear weapons.
As you say, though, none of these bits of history have EVER been included (at least since 2/22/22) in western corporate media accounts that have kept to the limits of Washington's narrative script. And unfortunately, they have been so faithful to it that even once-peace-loving and seemingly thoughtful Americans have been infected with anti-Russian hysteria, waving Ukr. flags and cheering on the steady flow of money and arms to keep the war going through much of the period.
Can You name one recent War waged by Anybody, Ed, that satisfies the criteria for a "Just War"?
That the US's War in Ukraine is not a "Just" one is no real surprise, given that the US has not been involved in anything even close to a "Just" War since the end of World War II.
But what about Russia's War in Ukraine? Does That meet those criteria for a "Just" War?
The only "War" that i can think of off the top of my head that even comes close to being anything close to being a "Just War" was the Zapatista Uprising in Chiapas, Mexico, when the Zapatista Army of National Liberation [EZLN] declared war on the federal government of Mexico on 1 January 1994, the day NAFTA was to go into effect.
For the last couple of years, i have invited people to consider the following Question:
"Will the United States of America survive to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026 [now 863 days from today]? And if it does, will the American Peoples be in any condition or mood to celebrate anything?"
Given the fact that Trump and Biden are the leading candidates to become the next Supreme Leader of a Bankrupt Debtor State, a Failing Imperialist Warfare State, a Flailing Redistributionist Welfare State, and a very efficient and effective 1984-esque Secrecy, Security, Surveillance, and Censorship Panopticon State, that Question is no longer relevant or applicable.
The Real Question now is no longer "WILL the the United States of America survive to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026??" Or even "CAN it survive?"
The Real Question is now: "SHOULD it survive? And if so, WHY?"
As a 77-year old retired United States Army Master Sergeant with 22 years of service ~ including 2 years in Vietnam in the 60s and 2 years in the pre-OPERATION DESERT STORM Middle East in the 80s ~ at this point in time, i am unable to believe, think, or say that it SHOULD survive. Or come up with any valid and legitimate reasons as to why it Should.
Perhaps somebody here at BV can answer that Question. Although, quite frankly, honestly, bluntly, and sincerely, i very seriously doubt it.
Especially if Either Trump or Biden become POTUS MAXXIMMUSS XLVII. Or anybody else currently on the stage or waiting in the wings to make their appearance on the current reality-tv extravaganza that is American Politics, Economics, Civil Society, and Culture.
As Ben Franklin put it when asked what had been accomplished at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia that brought the United States of America into existence after its secession from the British Empire: "We have given You a Republic; if You can keep it."
The Question Americans need to confront and deal with now is: "Now that we have all but lost that Republic, what happens next?" And the Answer to that Question is very, Very Ugly.
According to "The Independent" (UK), "The EU's imports of refined oil imports from India grew to record levels in 2023 at the same time as New Delhi's imports of Russian crude oil more than doubled year on year." Just a coincidence, I'm sure! hahaha
Some of us guessed from the beginning that Ukraine was always going to lose this war and the longer it went on the more that would become evident. When you're on a downhill slope, "as long as it takes" means going to zero.
The long comment posted downstream starting with "It was Biden who presided over the 2014 US/CIA Coup/Regime change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly government," I posted in the Washington Post 5 hours ago in 3 sections because of the 2000 character limitations is still there in this discussion, 'https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/23/gaza-ukraine-israel-russiarules-based-order'
In the same discussion I just posted this. It was deleted in another related article discussion a few days ago, but I was not suspended. It's just the factual historical record.
"On ALL SOULS DAY, November 2, 1976 The Kansas City Times published this picture in a followup to the September 13, 1976 article on my Time in the City as a Canadian, reaching an exceptionally high level of visibility at the Republican National Convention:
After being deported back to CanaDa as an Alien, I was surprised and probably the only one out of the 100 Million people watching the movie on TV 7 years to the month later, November 20, 1983, THE DAY AFTER Kansas City, of all the major American Cities, was incinerated in a Nuclear Holocaust.
After the destruction, the movie pauses at the very same picture frame published by The Kansas City Times 7 years earlier.
You can see it in this brief clip from the movie, as a SIGN of the TIMES this World has arrived at these 2 Generations later:
thank you, rg, both for your approbatory comment and your sanguine 'bon-santé' tribute. am still saturated w/ dolorosity since returning to mindoro island from the palestinian refugee camps where i volunteered last may, june, and july, but i have found workaround surcease by engaging in alternative pursuits. concomitantly, 3 of our 7 bantlings are here visiting us w/ their spouses/partners for several weeks, so we are well-entertained and edified by their salubrious, anacrustic [upbeat] hi-jinx presence.
The hypocrisy and duplicity of the US/Biden being obsessed with the death of Navalny, but so accommodating in facilitating the EVIL of Netanyahu KILLING over 13,000 CHILDREN in Gaza and the most blatant Ethnic cleansing of a population the World can see happening in REAL TIME.
Netanyahu knows he'll be in deep shit once the Israeli MASSACRE of Palestinians in Gaza ends.
I now believe Israel knew October 7 was about to happen and let it happen just to justify this MASSACRE of Palestinians in Gaza.
Meirshimer has said no war by the empire meets any Just War dogma. I agree with him. Some aspects of both WW's were not compatible with Just War. US civil war waged for solely abolition may be close, but if it was to bring states back in to federalism?
There are some situations where the people must rise to over throw a murderous regime, sort of like why police in limited circumstances can apply 'just' violence. Although policing does not intend to be legalized murder.
Hi Ed: What does Meirshimer say about Russia's War in Uktraine? Does he consider that War "Just"?
And what does he say about Israel's War on "Hamas," Gaza, and the Palestinian People? Is that "Just" And is Hamas', Hezbollah's, Etc War on Israel "Just"?
And finally [and as You alluded to re "federalism"]: Was what folks in the American Confederacy called "The War of Southern Secession" a "Just" War?
In the talk I referred to he said Putin (2008 well after the first tranche, big addition: Poland) had told the US and EU that Ukraine entering NATO would be considered an extreme threat, and do not do that.
In Donbas and Russian areas Putin is defending Russian and Orthodox religion from ethnic cleansing. As well as resisitng the empire evil designs.
Meirshimer was not addressing Just War in that part of the talk.
I hope that defending against a evil hegemon may get a little consideration at the judgement.
Hamas is fighting an occupying power that could be accused of ethnic cleansing, making it a defensive war, like the Irish over the centuries, maybe just.....
Hezbollah has some aggressive tactics, but mainly defending S Lebanon.
No reason to repent, Ed. Use that experience to better understand what is happening to this Nation and on this Planet today.
Just like Smedley Butler did back in his day:
"I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents " [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler ]
And This guy wants to be the next President of The United States? And there is a significant number of Americans who want him to be? But read what Russia has to say about the Alternative; and the Whole Process... :
*** NOTE: In any event: One of the Most Important Questions Americans need to start asking Themselves, their Families and Loved Ones, their Friends and Neighbors, and their Colleagues, Cohorts, and Compeers is: Is there an Alternative to and an Antidote for what "choice" America's Ruling Political Class is going to give Voters in Election2024; assuming there even is an election. ***
BIDEN CALLS PUTIN A ‘CRAZY SOB’: The Kremlin Says The Insult From Biden Brings Shame To The US by Dave DeCamp / antiwar.com 22 Feb
President Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘crazy SOB’ during a campaign fundraiser event on Wednesday, drawing a rebuke from the Kremlin.
Biden made the jab at the Russian leader when discussing climate change, claiming it was a bigger threat than nuclear war.
“We have a crazy SOB, that guy Putin and others and we always have to be worried about a nuclear conflict,” Biden said. “But the existential threat to humanity is climate.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden’s comments, saying it BROUGHT SHAME TO THE US, AND SAID IT WAS “HOLLYWOOD COWBOY BEHAVIOR” AIMED AT A DOMESTIC AUDIENCE.
“SUCH BOORISH STATEMENTS FROM THE MOUTH OF A US LEADER ARE HARDLY CAPABLE OF HURTING THE HEAD OF ANOTHER COUNTRY IN ANY WAY, MUCH LESS PRESIDENT PUTIN. BUT IT IS A GREAT SHAME FOR THE COUNTRY ITSELF,” Peskov said, according to the Russian news agency TASS.
Putin said the insult was likely A RESPONSE TO THE RUSSIAN LEADER RECENTLY SAYING BIDEN WAS PREFERABLE TO TRUMP FROM RUSSIA’S PERSPECTIVE SINCE BIDEN IS MORE PREDICTABLE. “WE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON THERE IN TERMS OF THE DOMESTIC POLICY AND IT’S A COMPLETELY APPROPRIATE REACTION, WHICH MEANS THAT I WAS RIGHT,” Putin said.
BIDEN HAS ABANDONED DIPLOMACY WITH PUTIN AND HASN’T SPOKEN WITH THE RUSSIAN LEADER SINCE RUSSIA LAUNCHED ITS INVASION OF UKRAINE ON FEBRUARY 24, 2022, ALMOST TWO YEARS AGO. THE US HAS CUT OFF MOST HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS WITH RUSSIA AND CONTINUES TO REJECT THE IDEA OF NEGOTIATIONS TO END THE UKRAINE WAR.
Biden has a history of hurling insults at other world leaders and REFERRED TO PUTIN AS A “KILLER” back in 2021. The president also recently REFERRED TO CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AS A “DICTATOR” following a meeting with him meant to ease tensions between the US and China.
I hear you but it depresses me to much to take it to that level. And I kinda disagree. I don't think all nations of this world want to or need to rely on war to "prosper"????
i hear You, Jazzme. Sometimes when i take it to that level and actually, really think about, it depresses the hell out of me, as well.
But it is at That level that this World operates; and so That is the Level that needs to be understood. That is, if it is to be effectively acted upon and against.
And remember, we’re not just talking about “Prosperity” here; especially not just Economic Prosperity.
We are also talking about Security. The Security of both The Nation and ~ usually far more important [at least to them] ~ the Ruling Political Class of that Nation.
And don’t forget those Second-level Health Boosters for the Nation after War: The “Threat” of War and an “Enemy.”
A PBS Report on the status of the Russia-Ukraine War
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/experts-analyze-state-of-ukraine-war-2-years-into-russias-invasion
Revealingly, PBS has two experts who are for the war, and one expert (John Mearsheimer) who rightly argues the war is already lost for Ukraine.
The female expert is especially bold in calling for expanded attacks by Ukraine on Russia using U.S.-provided weaponry. Dead Russians don't seem to matter, nor does the danger of serious escalation.
It was good to see Mearsheimer providing some sense and sanity here.
This morning, I saw another recycling of the phrase, "Putin has already lost." Mercifully, behind a paywall, I couldn't read it, and thus neither could any other non-subscribers. As New Testament adages go, another comes to mind, "A house divided cannot stand." If this is true, two things come to mind. Ukraine is a complete mess at every level. It cannot stand. The USA is so increasingly hostile unto itself, it too, cannot stand in its current form. (And the lapdogs of Western Europe seem all too content to let us drag their past decades of peace and prosperity down with us.)
On the other hand, Russia, despite massive Western efforts, seems to be moving from strength to strength. Slowly, but surely. And somehow, Putin, in choosing his words, can refrain from name calling Biden an SOB. I hate that term for the denigration to the mothers who bore such scoundrels--be she innocent or complicit with how they turn out as men. But if we are to label evil men as thugs, murderers or SOBs (if you must), then surely, we must go yet again to the New Testament, "Get the plank out of your own eye!"
A funny story about SOB.
My mother passed away in 1996 but sometimes she had a motor mouth that wouldn't stop.
She was visiting me at my apartment and she was in one of those periods. It was terrible to endure, so I told her I was going out.
With her diminutive size, she followed me to the door, her motor mouth in overdrive wagging her finger, and without thinking blurted out, "you son of a bitch!"
My reply was, " Mom, what can I say to that? I'm just going out until you calm down and I'll be back. I love you!"
When I got back, she apologized.
A moment of self reflection on her part, it seems. Great response from you! :-) And a healing one.
Bill, you appear to bend over backwards in soft-pedaling even the proximal causes of the Ukraine war, e.g. in suggesting that Russia and Ukraine had been feuding since 2014, with U.S. meddling furthering the tensions. One less familiar with the history would not glean from that the fact that the very reason for the Ukr.-Russe tensions was the coup that was substantially engineered by Washington's neocons, who have driven the State Dep't (and other agencies') foreign policy now for decades, through the Administrations of both Republican and Democratic Presidents. They wouldn't know that the same neocons who sold the Iraq invasion on deliberate lies were behind the coup and selection of the installed replacement puppet government.
Nor would they know that this coup was begun almost immediately after the announcement of a peace and security deal between those nations, which would have ensured continued peace (and military neutrality for Ukraine) for decades. The implications of that fact alone, but also accompanied by the facts that a) Ukraine would as a result become even closer tied economically to Russia and to its natural gas; and b) NATO's further expansion to Russia's western border would be obstructed, were anathema to U.S. hegemonic interests with respect to financial and military hegemony as well as U.S. control over global fossil fuels markets.
One overarching U.S. concern, of course, was that such an agreement would make more difficult the achievement of the neocons' (and their tool NATO)'s objective of constraining Russia's economic growth and thereby its achievement of peer status within Eurasian affairs.
An hegemonic Empire must have no equals and must allow no break with the unwritten but imposed rules within its "Rules Based Order".
In this piece I think you also equivocate about the status of Ukraine's armed forces and the war itself.
Most international observers not already fully aligned with the western / NATO / Atlantic Council camp, including many former U.S. military and intel officers, have concluded that Russia has already accomplished to a significant degree what it had set out to do in Feb. 2022.
Though it now controls a substantial part of E. Ukraine, for Russia's leadership, this was never about expansion of its territory, as the 8 years of its ignored pleas for negotiations had consistently made clear; but rather, about the security of its own borders, the continued Black Sea access via its nearly 250-year-old port and naval base at Sevastopol, and the protection of ethnic Russians in the Donbass. Its goal put most simply, has been the demilitarization of Ukraine and especially of its ultranationalist, neo-Nazi forces.
Furthermore, though the threats are not completely gone, and the Biden Administration continues to try to prolong this war "as long as "it" takes" (and that's deliberately vague, weasel language for saying, we want to prolong the war as long as possible"), Russia has already succeeded in the first goal of reducing, if not completely eliminating the threats related to Ukraine's war on and ethnic cleansing of the Donbass. The Azov battalions are not fully eradicated, but they've been largely chased out for at least the time being.
The outcome is indeed, all but certain, though the exact form of its resolution is unclear. Ukraine never had the ability, even with the past commitments of NATO-aligned states, to 'win' this easily preventable, but U.S.- sought (as the 2019 Rand Corp. memo suggests) war. In fact, the only (or at least biggest) remaining questions that I see are as follows:
1) How much longer can and will the U.S. and its NATO partners/vassal States continue to deliver arms and money, without committing their own citizens' bodies, in order to keep the war going? That will be in part a function of how much more tolerance there is among the electorates of Germany, France,the UK and others, for the economic impacts of this war.
2) Whether the NATO States will cross any further Russian security 'red lines' in the escalation of weaponry (including the long-range missiles Biden is considering sending; And if they do somehow manage to sufficiently threaten Russia's population and its national security, will escalation to nuclear weapons be triggered by any party?
3) How much farther West into Ukraine Russia will have to seize and control in order to obviate such threats (and whether that will require decapitation- as in the taking of Kyiv, and how much of a rump state will be left of "Ukraine")?;
4) How much of a population of Ukrainians will remain by the time any negotiated settlement occurs?
5) Who will undertake (if at all) the rebuilding of a structurally and institutionally devastated Ukraine? And how will THAT be funded- given that the U.S. has now greatly increased its national debt at the very time when its dollar hegemony via the currency exhange apparatus is weakening and its debt exposes its fundamental vulnerabilities and is followed by rapid inflation?
Lastly, I want to accentuate that last question / point, vis a vis your point that, "War may be the health of the state of the self-styled “arsenal of democracy...". While it's true that war spending fuels at a minimum the profits of the military industry (and this must to an extent also be applied to Russia (whose economy appears, by the way, to be MUCH stronger than the article implies), it isn't really healthy at all to the U.S.population in general. Sure, it helps keep the dollar temporarily afloat, in the short term maintaining the U.S. ability to spend and print more paper IOUs to back up its debt.
Yet the expansion of that debt in a world whose greater population appears more than ready to break away from the dollar's controls, means that long term (and in that I predict, not very distant future), the Washington-centered Empire will have effectively begun its contraction, with vast life changes forced upon an even-more disturbed citizenry.
And just in case you wonder, I liked the article and love the question: "Is America an arsenal of democracy, or just an arsenal?" ; though the very phrase, "arsenal of democracy" puts me on edge; for those who run the ship of state are highly interested in arsenals but appear disinterested in and even fearful of democracy
I wasn't soft-pedaling so much as I was trying to focus on events since 2/24/22 with some guesses about the future.
Perhaps that was a poor choice of words. I also recognize that it wasn't your intent to discuss the entirety of the story behind this tragic war. I'm probably prickly about the stories I do most often see, for their intentional omission of facts which if known might lead more of the public to question the wisdom of prolonging the killing.
not ''a poor choice of words" at all roger; too much 'soft-peddling' afoot here. it was what should have been said and repeated on multiple occasions on multifarious blogsites. your comprehensive coverage is profound and parlous appreciated.
Great comment Roger. Thanks for your excellent input.
And another great blog by our esteemed author.
But when he throws in "The Russian economy isn’t strong;"
That a big Red Flag for me. It just isn't true!
If you Google this subject, their algorithm never fails to give all Western points of view.
And those authors ALL begin by admitting the Russian economy is doing very well, better than the EU nations, the UK and arguably the US.
They can't deny the facts.
But they then invariably launch into "but Putin has it all wrong" and conclude the Russian economy is heading for collapse!
Thats their dream! Not going to happen.
I'm not an economic expert. Russia's economy seems stable to me but still relatively weak compared to the economies of Western countries, especially the U.S.
So, for example, Russia's GDP in 2023 ranked 11th in the world, far behind countries like the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, India, and the UK.
Stats here: https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
I'm also not an economic expert. But I can read articles on the Internet.
The use of GDP as an economic indicator is a joke amongst modern serious economists, Bill. See Professor Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff on this.
And of course, the UK has just announced it has gone into recession.
Germany soon to follow?
I know it's just one measure. As I said, I think the Russian economy is stable. "Strong" is relative. If you want to argue Russia is strong economically, perhaps you might cite some data.
How reliable is Wiki, eh Bill?
Wiki: The economy of Russia has gradually transformed from a planned economy into a mixed market-oriented economy.[28] It has enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas.[29] In 2023, it was the world's 11th-largest economy by nominal GDP, 6th-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) according to IMF, and 5th-largest according to World Bank.[5]
Russia's vast geography is an important determinant of its economic activity, with the country holding a large share of the world's natural resources.[32] It has been widely described as an energy superpower;[33] as it has the world's largest natural gas reserves,[34] 2nd-largest coal reserves,[35] 8th-largest oil reserves,[36] and the largest oil shale reserves in Europe.[37] It is the world's leading natural gas exporter,[38] the 2nd-largest natural gas producer,[39] the 2nd-largest oil exporter[40] and producer[41] and third largest coal exporter.[42] Russia's foreign exchange reserves are the world's 4th-largest.[43] It has a labour force of roughly 70 million people, which is the world's 7th-largest.[44] Russia is the world's 3rd-largest exporter of arms.[45] The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 34% of Russia's federal budget revenues,[46] and up to 54% of its exports in 2021.[47][48]
Doesn't this data support that, in the coming decades of fossil fuel depletion, Russia has a strong future economy?
I think that's a reasonable conclusion.
well and succinctly said, dennis.
Good to see you participating regularly again on BV Jeanie! Hope you're in good health.
Thank You, Roger, for that list of Questions that every American still capable of thinking for her or himself needs to start asking Themselves, their Families and Loved Ones, their Friends and Neighbors, and their Colleagues, Cohorts, and Compeers.
And then their "Leaders" in Washington, DC; starting with The White House, and continuing with their two US Senators and their Representative in the House.
You also wrote: "... long term (and in that I predict, not very distant future), the Washington-centered Empire will have effectively begun its contraction... .".
The "Decline" Phase of The American Empire ~ and with it, America as a Nation-State has come to an end, Roger; and The "Fall" Phase has begun.
The Real Questions are: What happens Next? And exactly Who gets to determine that? And How do they go about determining that?
And You may find my earlier conversation with Jazzme about War being "The Health of The State" interesting.
Jeff, I suppose it's a matter of semantics and subjectivity about what signals or constitutes that moment when a decline accelerates to "falling" , and then, after the splat, demise. With nations, I suppose it's easier to write, after one is vanquished and, perhaps like Yugoslavia, irreparably broken into pieces, that its demise is fact. With an Empire, it probably takes a bit longer and the manifestations of its decline and fall are at first hard to see because of the scale and the number of complex, interconnected component systems - such as economic conditions, political changes, collapse of social institutions, infrastructural decay, etc. It doesn't all collapse at once and in entirety, but the process of degradation and decay can be seen more readily, and especially in retrospect.
So I can't argue your point that the "fall" has already begun. Certainly, anyone who's watched with even some degree of attention will have already noted the decline in a number of conditions for which metrics are already available. These range from our sliding position internationally, as indicated by such things like the Democracy Index, Happiness index, Health outcomes; avg. life expectancy(!); growth of national debt; the growth of the income and wealth gaps between the wealthiest few and the res.t. Then there is the fairly rapid growth of repressive measures and authoritarianism, now notably strong on the (neo)liberal side as well as the neoconservative one.
Witness Biden's "Disinfo Board", and the ramping up in the UK, EU and the U.S. of efforts to stop "hate speech" and 'disinformation' ) and its attacks on democratic principles (e.g., the admitted position of the DNC that it doesn't have to have a democratic process for nominating candidates; the rapid growth of the two facets of narrative control, propaganda and censorship, which are contradictory to and incompatible with freedom of information and speech; etc.).
Additionally, the emergence of BRICS, the comparative economic strength that Russia seems to be enjoying vis a vis that of various NATO nations, the antithesis of that for which the DC neocon architects of the Ukraine War were striving, and the growing pressures around the globe for autonomy from the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, is of course one of the most obvious signals.
All of these seem to be indicators of Imperial desperation and rapid decline signaling at least the beginning of the end for the Empire which emerged rather suddenly after WWII and has had a nearly 80 year run.
I suspect, however, that in their desperation to maintain the status quo (of hegemonic comfort) that the Empire has provided the self-anointing elites in particular, that the Empire will be seen more clearly and by more of the populous, as it tries to avert the inevitable. That suggests still more wars, accelerating debt, an increase in autocracy regardless of Party in power, gradually and possibly steadily climbing inflation (especially over the long term, though I expect that economic uncertainty will increase more certainly); a more unsettled population whose angst is driven by increasing precarity, etc.
Of course, none of that even begins to address the impacts of the other big threat that you (with my thanks) mention: the ecological collapse most immediately threatened by climate destabilization, that, if not at least rapidly mitigated, will upset the entirety of the global apple cart and lead to a scenario that I'm rather sure has never been experienced by any Empire.
As Bill and many of us have already noted, we (and definitely the younger gen's) are going to be in for an 'interesting' if very rough ride.
It was Biden who presided over the 2014 US/CIA Coup/Regime change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly government, installing the US UN-elected proxy anti-Russian Ukraine government. That's when the seeds for this WAR were planted.
That anti-Russian government immediately started shelling the majority Russian speaking UKRAINIANS in the East bordering Russia who voted for the Russian friendly government and refused to accept the US/CIA orchestrated Coup. From 2014 to 2022 there were some 14,000 UKRAINIAN Civilians in the East killed by the Ukraine government shelling, but that was not hyped big News in the West.
Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed the 13-point Minsk accord in February 2015.
The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2202 calling on all parties, to implement the 13-point agreement in February 2015. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, gathered in Minsk at the time, and issued a declaration of support for the deal.
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides
3. Monitoring and verification by the OSCE
4. To start a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledge their special status by parliamentary resolution.
5. A pardon and amnesty for people involved in the fighting
6. An exchange of hostages and prisoners.
7. Provision of humanitarian assistance.
8. Resumption of socio-economic ties, including pensions.
9. Restoration of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk.
12. Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk on terms to be agreed with their representatives.
13. Intensifying the work of a Trilateral Contact Group comprising representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.
To Putin's great disappointment, Ukraine and the Western signatories made no effort to implement the terms of Minsk II, and Germany's Merkel and France's Holland spilled the beans the the purpose of Minsk II was only to stall while NATO armed and trained Ukraine for the WAR NATO was determined to provoke with Russia.
Fast forward to December 2021 when Putin repackaged the agreed Terms of Minsk II in a draft Treaty submitted to the US for consideration the US rejected out of hand without any Diplomatic discussion at all.
In early 2022, Western MSM were reporting Russia had amassed some 140,0000 troops on the border without mentioning Ukraine amassed some 80,000 facing the Russian speaking Ukraine majority in the East resisting the 2014 CIA orchestrated Coup.
More than anyone else, only because The Kansas City Times was quoting me in the Historical record of September 13, 1976, publishing, "He wanted to bring to the Public’s attention an “idea being put out subtly and deceptively” by the government that we have to get prepared for a war with Russia” I went to the OSCE website to see what was happening with no. 3 of the 2015 Minsk II the week before the Russian SMO.
US Western MSM didn't report it because it conflicts with the incessant Western War Propaganda the Russian SMO was unprovoked. In the week before February 24, the Ukraine government increased shelling the Russian speaking Ukrainians with up to 2000 Truce violations a DAY. It was Ukraine that started the WAR, most probably as US direction, that provoked the Russian SMO to stop it.
We also know Russia and Ukraine initialled an agreement to stop the fighting in March, 2022 but the US lapdog Johnson went to Kiev with the instruction to not follow through with Russia because the US would arm and support Ukraine to fight Russia as long as it takes.
US/NATO claiming Russia wants to re-constitute the Soviet Union is fake US hype to sell more Weapons of Death & Destruction, preparing Americans and the World for the FINAL WAR to End ALL WARS, WWIII/Armageddon.
Vladimir Putin, "Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains."
New York Times 20 February 2000;
If the US wasn't so determined to weaken Russia, all the territory Ukraine lost in the WAR would still be part of Ukraine but for the US also presiding over the Gaza carnage perpetuating the WAR, when the US has the leverage to stop the slaughter by threatening to stop supplying Israel the bombs and cash.
Excellent comment, Ray, and thanks for adding some of the most important yet obscured details of the prelude to this war, Ray.
One very minor correction, if I may: the 14,000 deaths estimated (by OSCE?) in the first 8 years of the conflict included, if mermory serves, combatants (possibly including W. Ukrainian armed forces and militia, along with the non-combatant resident civilians - many of whom were likely killed by the routine shelling, over those eight years, by Ukraine of the Donbass region.
While I don't know if I've seen documentation re. the exact time of Ukraine's huge troop buildup on the Donbass border, the amassing of Russian troops in early 2022 appears to have been in direct response to Ukr.'s troop buildup.
The latter was accompanied, at the end of 2021 and in early 2022, by a rather sudden and significant amplification of the shelling. OCSE had documented that change... I saw a graph they'd put together that clearly showed that sudden and large increase.
So your point that " It was Ukraine that started the WAR, most probably as US direction, that provoked the Russian SMO to stop it" is right on the money. Given Russia's several ignored appeals for negotiations (even up to weeks before the SMO began), the only logical and honest conclusion is that Russia was provoked. I'd say, not only 'provoked', but perhaps more truthfully, forced into that decision.
The latter point, of having no other reasonable option, is furthered by the bigger picture that makes the existential threat to Russia more clear. A major part of that was the increasing talk, over multiple years, of NATO's expansion to Ukraine, and indeed, the U.S.'s declarations that it would happen. Of course, Russia itself had made clear over a much longer time that such an event would represent the crossing of a red line of security threats to Russia (which is IMO completely recognizable). But they weren't alone as that conclusion was also shared by many of America's best and brightest and most senior and experienced officers-diplomatic, intelligence, and military- as well as its most knowledgeable international relations scholars, and even members of Congress (Sen. Bill Bradley, for example). I've compiled a (partial) list of such people and their warnings. All warned over decades that this would be a stupid and highly dangerous act by the U.S. and its NATO tool. Yet there we - or our MICIMATT mis-leaders - were: pushing for it.
Every single past action and current sign was that Russia was about to be put into a position of defending against yet another major attack from the West via Ukraine. And to boot, this one would, just like the last, be led by Nazis! Once NATO set up the required weaponry on Russia's western border, in Ukraine, Russia would be vulnerable not only to missile attacks from Ukraine but also to nuclear blackmail, as ABMs would threaten to significantly undercut the nuclear deterrent capability that is part of the tenuous but until-recently functional Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) principle/doctrine that has likely kept the U.S. from another use of nuclear weapons.
As you say, though, none of these bits of history have EVER been included (at least since 2/22/22) in western corporate media accounts that have kept to the limits of Washington's narrative script. And unfortunately, they have been so faithful to it that even once-peace-loving and seemingly thoughtful Americans have been infected with anti-Russian hysteria, waving Ukr. flags and cheering on the steady flow of money and arms to keep the war going through much of the period.
Responsibility to protect (R2P) is fallacy and in the case of expanded NATO do not approach any criteria of Just War dogma.
“As long as it takes” is same as US’ disdain for Russia’s valid security fear of US nukes north of Kiev.
US plan, cannot call it strategy is to wear out Russia, no matter how many Slav kill each other for US’ imperial (contrary to Just War) gains.
Can You name one recent War waged by Anybody, Ed, that satisfies the criteria for a "Just War"?
That the US's War in Ukraine is not a "Just" one is no real surprise, given that the US has not been involved in anything even close to a "Just" War since the end of World War II.
But what about Russia's War in Ukraine? Does That meet those criteria for a "Just" War?
The only "War" that i can think of off the top of my head that even comes close to being anything close to being a "Just War" was the Zapatista Uprising in Chiapas, Mexico, when the Zapatista Army of National Liberation [EZLN] declared war on the federal government of Mexico on 1 January 1994, the day NAFTA was to go into effect.
[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zapatista_uprising ]
For the last couple of years, i have invited people to consider the following Question:
"Will the United States of America survive to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026 [now 863 days from today]? And if it does, will the American Peoples be in any condition or mood to celebrate anything?"
Given the fact that Trump and Biden are the leading candidates to become the next Supreme Leader of a Bankrupt Debtor State, a Failing Imperialist Warfare State, a Flailing Redistributionist Welfare State, and a very efficient and effective 1984-esque Secrecy, Security, Surveillance, and Censorship Panopticon State, that Question is no longer relevant or applicable.
The Real Question now is no longer "WILL the the United States of America survive to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026??" Or even "CAN it survive?"
The Real Question is now: "SHOULD it survive? And if so, WHY?"
As a 77-year old retired United States Army Master Sergeant with 22 years of service ~ including 2 years in Vietnam in the 60s and 2 years in the pre-OPERATION DESERT STORM Middle East in the 80s ~ at this point in time, i am unable to believe, think, or say that it SHOULD survive. Or come up with any valid and legitimate reasons as to why it Should.
Perhaps somebody here at BV can answer that Question. Although, quite frankly, honestly, bluntly, and sincerely, i very seriously doubt it.
Especially if Either Trump or Biden become POTUS MAXXIMMUSS XLVII. Or anybody else currently on the stage or waiting in the wings to make their appearance on the current reality-tv extravaganza that is American Politics, Economics, Civil Society, and Culture.
As Ben Franklin put it when asked what had been accomplished at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia that brought the United States of America into existence after its secession from the British Empire: "We have given You a Republic; if You can keep it."
The Question Americans need to confront and deal with now is: "Now that we have all but lost that Republic, what happens next?" And the Answer to that Question is very, Very Ugly.
"Don't wake the sleeping giant" the Japanese admiralty was supposedly told by Isoroku Yamamoto in 1941.
Someone needs to tell Joe, "Don't poke the bear".
Two years of sanctions have failed to weaken the Russian economy enough to stop it waging war against Ukraine.
If anything, the opposite has happened: Russia's economy grew by 3.6% in 2023.
More and more oil is ending up in India. Its most important oil supplier is now Russia.
Russia's growth is partly financed on credit, including military spending. How long can Putin actually afford to do this?
"You can ride that for quite a while. Russia had a very low debt level at the beginning of the war, it still has a low debt level even now."
"Russia does not look set to run out of money to finance the war in Ukraine anytime soon."- Sebastian Hoppe, Russia expert, Free University of Berlin.
According to "The Independent" (UK), "The EU's imports of refined oil imports from India grew to record levels in 2023 at the same time as New Delhi's imports of Russian crude oil more than doubled year on year." Just a coincidence, I'm sure! hahaha
Some of us guessed from the beginning that Ukraine was always going to lose this war and the longer it went on the more that would become evident. When you're on a downhill slope, "as long as it takes" means going to zero.
The long comment posted downstream starting with "It was Biden who presided over the 2014 US/CIA Coup/Regime change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly government," I posted in the Washington Post 5 hours ago in 3 sections because of the 2000 character limitations is still there in this discussion, 'https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/23/gaza-ukraine-israel-russiarules-based-order'
In the same discussion I just posted this. It was deleted in another related article discussion a few days ago, but I was not suspended. It's just the factual historical record.
"On ALL SOULS DAY, November 2, 1976 The Kansas City Times published this picture in a followup to the September 13, 1976 article on my Time in the City as a Canadian, reaching an exceptionally high level of visibility at the Republican National Convention:
https://ray032.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/kansas-city-times-november-2-1976-all-souls-day-2.jpg
After being deported back to CanaDa as an Alien, I was surprised and probably the only one out of the 100 Million people watching the movie on TV 7 years to the month later, November 20, 1983, THE DAY AFTER Kansas City, of all the major American Cities, was incinerated in a Nuclear Holocaust.
After the destruction, the movie pauses at the very same picture frame published by The Kansas City Times 7 years earlier.
You can see it in this brief clip from the movie, as a SIGN of the TIMES this World has arrived at these 2 Generations later:
https://youtu.be/q7J8eMyK1DI
It's still there after 30 minutes.!
Here is Judge Napolitano interviewing Aaron Mate on the Gaza and Ukraine WARS, affirming much of what I posted here on those same WARS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGb5HZCAF3w
From: aaronmate@protonmail.com
To: ray032@sympatico.ca
Sent: Thursday, February 1st 2024, 15:04
Subject: Re: Cutting aid to refugees, US advances Israel’s war on Palestinian existence
Hi Ray - I gave you a lifetime subscription, from one Concordia grad to another. Best, Aaron
thank you, rg, both for your approbatory comment and your sanguine 'bon-santé' tribute. am still saturated w/ dolorosity since returning to mindoro island from the palestinian refugee camps where i volunteered last may, june, and july, but i have found workaround surcease by engaging in alternative pursuits. concomitantly, 3 of our 7 bantlings are here visiting us w/ their spouses/partners for several weeks, so we are well-entertained and edified by their salubrious, anacrustic [upbeat] hi-jinx presence.
The hypocrisy and duplicity of the US/Biden being obsessed with the death of Navalny, but so accommodating in facilitating the EVIL of Netanyahu KILLING over 13,000 CHILDREN in Gaza and the most blatant Ethnic cleansing of a population the World can see happening in REAL TIME.
Netanyahu knows he'll be in deep shit once the Israeli MASSACRE of Palestinians in Gaza ends.
I now believe Israel knew October 7 was about to happen and let it happen just to justify this MASSACRE of Palestinians in Gaza.
Meirshimer has said no war by the empire meets any Just War dogma. I agree with him. Some aspects of both WW's were not compatible with Just War. US civil war waged for solely abolition may be close, but if it was to bring states back in to federalism?
There are some situations where the people must rise to over throw a murderous regime, sort of like why police in limited circumstances can apply 'just' violence. Although policing does not intend to be legalized murder.
Hi Ed: What does Meirshimer say about Russia's War in Uktraine? Does he consider that War "Just"?
And what does he say about Israel's War on "Hamas," Gaza, and the Palestinian People? Is that "Just" And is Hamas', Hezbollah's, Etc War on Israel "Just"?
And finally [and as You alluded to re "federalism"]: Was what folks in the American Confederacy called "The War of Southern Secession" a "Just" War?
In the talk I referred to he said Putin (2008 well after the first tranche, big addition: Poland) had told the US and EU that Ukraine entering NATO would be considered an extreme threat, and do not do that.
In Donbas and Russian areas Putin is defending Russian and Orthodox religion from ethnic cleansing. As well as resisitng the empire evil designs.
Meirshimer was not addressing Just War in that part of the talk.
I hope that defending against a evil hegemon may get a little consideration at the judgement.
Hamas is fighting an occupying power that could be accused of ethnic cleansing, making it a defensive war, like the Irish over the centuries, maybe just.....
Hezbollah has some aggressive tactics, but mainly defending S Lebanon.
I repent over my service to the pentagon!
No reason to repent, Ed. Use that experience to better understand what is happening to this Nation and on this Planet today.
Just like Smedley Butler did back in his day:
"I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents " [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler ]
And This guy wants to be the next President of The United States? And there is a significant number of Americans who want him to be? But read what Russia has to say about the Alternative; and the Whole Process... :
*** NOTE: In any event: One of the Most Important Questions Americans need to start asking Themselves, their Families and Loved Ones, their Friends and Neighbors, and their Colleagues, Cohorts, and Compeers is: Is there an Alternative to and an Antidote for what "choice" America's Ruling Political Class is going to give Voters in Election2024; assuming there even is an election. ***
BIDEN CALLS PUTIN A ‘CRAZY SOB’: The Kremlin Says The Insult From Biden Brings Shame To The US by Dave DeCamp / antiwar.com 22 Feb
President Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘crazy SOB’ during a campaign fundraiser event on Wednesday, drawing a rebuke from the Kremlin.
Biden made the jab at the Russian leader when discussing climate change, claiming it was a bigger threat than nuclear war.
“We have a crazy SOB, that guy Putin and others and we always have to be worried about a nuclear conflict,” Biden said. “But the existential threat to humanity is climate.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden’s comments, saying it BROUGHT SHAME TO THE US, AND SAID IT WAS “HOLLYWOOD COWBOY BEHAVIOR” AIMED AT A DOMESTIC AUDIENCE.
“SUCH BOORISH STATEMENTS FROM THE MOUTH OF A US LEADER ARE HARDLY CAPABLE OF HURTING THE HEAD OF ANOTHER COUNTRY IN ANY WAY, MUCH LESS PRESIDENT PUTIN. BUT IT IS A GREAT SHAME FOR THE COUNTRY ITSELF,” Peskov said, according to the Russian news agency TASS.
Putin said the insult was likely A RESPONSE TO THE RUSSIAN LEADER RECENTLY SAYING BIDEN WAS PREFERABLE TO TRUMP FROM RUSSIA’S PERSPECTIVE SINCE BIDEN IS MORE PREDICTABLE. “WE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON THERE IN TERMS OF THE DOMESTIC POLICY AND IT’S A COMPLETELY APPROPRIATE REACTION, WHICH MEANS THAT I WAS RIGHT,” Putin said.
BIDEN HAS ABANDONED DIPLOMACY WITH PUTIN AND HASN’T SPOKEN WITH THE RUSSIAN LEADER SINCE RUSSIA LAUNCHED ITS INVASION OF UKRAINE ON FEBRUARY 24, 2022, ALMOST TWO YEARS AGO. THE US HAS CUT OFF MOST HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS WITH RUSSIA AND CONTINUES TO REJECT THE IDEA OF NEGOTIATIONS TO END THE UKRAINE WAR.
Biden has a history of hurling insults at other world leaders and REFERRED TO PUTIN AS A “KILLER” back in 2021. The president also recently REFERRED TO CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AS A “DICTATOR” following a meeting with him meant to ease tensions between the US and China.
Source: https://news.antiwar.com/2024/02/22/biden-calls-putin-a-crazy-sob/ ; EMPHASES added.
I hear you but it depresses me to much to take it to that level. And I kinda disagree. I don't think all nations of this world want to or need to rely on war to "prosper"????
i hear You, Jazzme. Sometimes when i take it to that level and actually, really think about, it depresses the hell out of me, as well.
But it is at That level that this World operates; and so That is the Level that needs to be understood. That is, if it is to be effectively acted upon and against.
And remember, we’re not just talking about “Prosperity” here; especially not just Economic Prosperity.
We are also talking about Security. The Security of both The Nation and ~ usually far more important [at least to them] ~ the Ruling Political Class of that Nation.
And don’t forget those Second-level Health Boosters for the Nation after War: The “Threat” of War and an “Enemy.”