Beware of Long Wars
Ukrainian Attacks on Russia Are Dangerously Escalatory
Reports that Ukraine is launching modified drones to strike airbases deep in Russia highlight the unpredictability and escalatory nature of wars. Ukraine is no longer content at defending itself against Russian aggression; Russia itself must be made a target, which will likely provoke harsher Russian counterattacks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress continues to authorize billions in military aid to Ukraine, which is pitched as defending democracy and freedom.
War is many things but it is rarely democratic. Indeed, as James Madison warned, war is inherently anti-democratic. It strengthens authoritarian forces and contributes to abuses of power and corruption. As the Russia-Ukraine War goes on, with no clear resolution in sight, Ukraine suffers more even as the chances of escalation rise.
What’s needed now is resolute diplomacy — a committed effort to end the war by all parties involved, obviously Russia and Ukraine but also the U.S. and NATO. The longer this disastrous war lasts, the more unpredictable it will become, the more atrocious it will prove, and the more likely ordinary Ukrainians and Russians will suffer and die, whether at various battlefronts or on the homefront.
Negotiation is not weakness nor is it appeasement. Negotiation is sensible, rational, and life-affirming. But there’s little reason for Ukraine to negotiate when it’s enjoying a blank check of support from the U.S. and NATO.
Meanwhile, as Ukraine continues striking deep into Russia, one wonders to what extent the U.S. military and intelligence agencies are involved. Did the U.S. provide technology? Targeting information? Intelligence? Or is Ukraine doing this entirely on its own, a scenario that is less than comforting?
I sure hope the U.S. and Russia are talking. In the confusion and chaos of war, how is Russia to know for sure that an attack on one of their strategic air bases is coming from Ukraine and not from NATO territory? Even if it's clearly coming from Ukraine, if these attacks are enabled or approved by the U.S./NATO, will the Russians see them as an act of war? Will they respond militarily, creating even more escalatory pressure?
Bizarrely, Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia has been sold as America’s “good” war, a chance to weaken Russia and Putin in the cause of defending Ukrainian “democracy.” But as Ukraine’s tactics turn more offensive, and as the Ukrainian government likely becomes more authoritarian due to the pressures of war, how wise is it for the United States to continue to send massive amounts of military aid there while discouraging diplomacy?
Policies that end in prolonging the Russia-Ukraine War in the name of teaching Putin a lesson and eroding his power may teach us all a lesson in how war is not just anti-democratic. War runs to extremes, and only fools believe they can control it in a way that is conducive to liberty and freedom and justice.
I have a friend who's a strong supporter of Ukraine and U.S./NATO policy. He argues that Ukraine's drone attacks are proportionate, that Ukraine should be supported as it is winning the war, that negotiation at this stage would be a mistake, and that my concerns are very much overblown.
Here's how I responded to him:
I admire your confidence in Ukraine.
I am not so confident. In citing the peril of long wars, I merely repeat what James Madison said in 1795. I also echo what I learned from closely studying World War I and the life of Paul von Hindenburg. As a general rule, you wage war long, you wage it wrong.
You seem to me to be caught up in tactics and weaponry, confident in an eventual Ukrainian victory as long as Biden continues to send billions in arms and ammunition. (If the latest request is approved, U.S. aid will exceed $90 billion in less than a year.) What I see is a country being devastated by war, with the poor and weak suffering the most from hunger and lack of heat.
That doesn't mean I want Ukraine to surrender or Putin to "win." The longer the war lasts, the more Ukraine (and Russia) suffers, even as war, as Madison said, reinforces authoritarianism and feeds corruption.
Whether Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia are "proportionate" depends very much on where you sit. I doubt Russia sees it that way. I don't care what Putin thinks, but I do care about how he might respond, and the dangers to Ukraine as well as the risks of a wider war.
As I've said, may your optimism and faith in Ukraine and the utility of war prevail.
I was watching a John Mearsheimer interview last night on UnHerd. He says there's a "non-trivial" chance of escalation leading to nuclear war. So should I have that extra piece of pepperoni pizza? Sure, why not? Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow .....