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I have a friend who's a strong supporter of Ukraine and U.S./NATO policy. He argues that Ukraine's drone attacks are proportionate, that Ukraine should be supported as it is winning the war, that negotiation at this stage would be a mistake, and that my concerns are very much overblown.

Here's how I responded to him:

I admire your confidence in Ukraine.

I am not so confident. In citing the peril of long wars, I merely repeat what James Madison said in 1795. I also echo what I learned from closely studying World War I and the life of Paul von Hindenburg. As a general rule, you wage war long, you wage it wrong.

You seem to me to be caught up in tactics and weaponry, confident in an eventual Ukrainian victory as long as Biden continues to send billions in arms and ammunition. (If the latest request is approved, U.S. aid will exceed $90 billion in less than a year.) What I see is a country being devastated by war, with the poor and weak suffering the most from hunger and lack of heat.

That doesn't mean I want Ukraine to surrender or Putin to "win." The longer the war lasts, the more Ukraine (and Russia) suffers, even as war, as Madison said, reinforces authoritarianism and feeds corruption.

Whether Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia are "proportionate" depends very much on where you sit. I doubt Russia sees it that way. I don't care what Putin thinks, but I do care about how he might respond, and the dangers to Ukraine as well as the risks of a wider war.

As I've said, may your optimism and faith in Ukraine and the utility of war prevail.

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Dec 7, 2022Liked by Bill Astore

I was watching a John Mearsheimer interview last night on UnHerd. He says there's a "non-trivial" chance of escalation leading to nuclear war. So should I have that extra piece of pepperoni pizza? Sure, why not? Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow .....

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Re. " one wonders to what extent the U.S. military and intelligence agencies are involved":

This was the first thought that crossed my mind. I highly suspect targeting, using satellite imagery; and therefore the Kremlin must suspect it as well. To the extent this represents a significant escalation and threat, it is a huge risk. Russia had been for so long operating with 'both hands handcuffed" and only after prior escalations by Ukraine started acting more 'normally'. So one wonders what their response will be now that a more definite existential threat is manifest.

And what would the U.S. / NATO gambit be? Just testing boundaries to see what Russia might do? Or perhaps they think this would induce Russia to seek a negotiation that compromises its position?

I'm certainly not qualified in any way to analyze this, but it strikes me as preposterous to assume they can get Russia to cede Crimea, yield on NATOization of Ukraine or again sacrifice the Donbass majorities to the neo Nazis.

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In case anybody is wondering… : HOW WILL THE U.S. LIKELY SPEND ALMOST $860 BILLION FOR ITS NATIONAL DEFENSE IN THE YEAR AHEAD? by Defense One December 7, 2022 [Extracts, EMPHASES added.]

<<< In the just released “National Defense Authorization Act [NDAA] for Fiscal Year 2023 [FY23],” "Taiwan" was mentioned 438 times in the document; "China" 266; "Russia" 237; "Ukraine" 159 times; "Iran" 125; "North Korea" 42; "vaccine" 19 times; "border security" just eight times; and the word "diversity" was used 47 times, while the word "woke" did not make any appearances. >>>

We have a much better idea now that Senate and House leaders have agreed to a new defense policy bill, which was published on Tuesday evening just a few hours before midnight….

Perhaps most notably, THE $858 BILLION BILL REPEALS THE PENTAGON'S COVID VACCINE MANDATE…

Army end strength has been reduced to 452,000 troops… The Marines are also expected to shrink, though by a lot less… The Air Force will shrink by about 4,000 airmen… the Navy has been tasked with adding about 7,000 sailors… The Space Force will add about 200 Guardians, rising to about 8,600 troops in the newest branch of the armed forces.

In terms of planes and ships, etc., FIVE F-35A JETS ARE EXPECTED, AS WELL AS 15 F-35BS, AND 16 F-35CS. TEN MORE HH-60W HELICOPTERS AND FOUR EC-37B COMPASS CALL AIRCRAFT are also newly funded in the bill.

And more than $32 BILLION HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR NEW SHIPS, including 11 "battle force" vessels—three Arleigh Burke-class DESTROYERS; two Virginia-class SUBMARINES; two EXPEDITIONARY FAST TRANSPORTS; one Constellation-class FRIGATE; one San Antonio-class AMPHIBIOUS SHIP; one John Lewis-class OILER; and one Navajo-class TOWING, SALVAGE, AND RESCUE SHIP.

UKRAINE IS SET TO GET ABOUT $800 MILLION IN MILITARY ASSISTANCE NEXT YEAR… ANOTHER ALMOST THREE BILLION DOLLARS HAVE BEEN SET ASIDE TO BOOST MUNITIONS PRODUCTION FOR ITEMS LIKE ARTILLERY ROUNDS AND MISSILES USED IN UKRAINE.

The BILL INCLUDES UP TO $10 BILLION IN MILITARY SPENDING FOR TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS…. Lawmakers also ordered the military to produce a report reviewing China's "strategy for the use of force against Taiwan, including…adjustments based on how the Russian military has performed in Ukraine"; and they want an assessment of increased U.S.-Taiwan economic cooperation, as well as a review of "China's nuclear threat in escalation dynamics." …

Another $165 MILLION WOULD GO TO TRAINING U.S. MILITARY PARTNERS IN SYRIA as part of the ongoing war against ISIS terrorists in the region. And speaking of terrorism, the U.S. MILITARY DETENTION FACILITY AT CUBA'S GUANTANAMO BAY JUST GOT ANOTHER YEAR-LONG LEASE ON LIFE.

IN TERMS OF NEW AND EMERGING DEFENSE TECHNOLOGIES, THE DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY IS GETTING $75 million for artificial intelligence, and another $20 million for quantum computing; $85 million is set aside for advanced "jamming protection, electronic warfare and signature measurement"; $120 million will go toward 5G research and equipment; almost $300 million is devoted to new hypersonics research; and there's lots of cyber-related funding, including an additional $50 million to develop AI systems at Cyber Command.

Full article at https://link.govexec.com/view/632cde87e62c2e12f402d9cahsrnw.10zm/b6064554 .

For full text of the NDAA and supporting documentation: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/press-releases/sasc-and-hasc-release-text-of-fy23-ndaa-agreement

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THE SEASON FINALE OF THE HIT SHOW “PROXY WAR” by Caitlin Johnstone

Everyone's talking about the hit series PROXY WAR, an astronomically high-budget production based on an actual military conflict whose season finale is set to air this month.

Promotional materials for the episode hint at a heartwarming season wrap-up that's sure to make wholesome viewing for the whole family, with series star Volodymyr Zelensky being awarded 2022 PERSON OF THE YEAR BY TIME MAGAZINE.

[ https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1600470652363866113 ]

This will cap off a wild first season which has seen our hero appear on the cover of VOGUE, deliver speeches for the WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, THE GRAMMY AWARDS AND NUMEROUS FILM FESTIVALS, as well as having high-profile meetings with CELEBRITY ACTORS AND ROCK STARS.

PROXY WAR has been A MUCH-NEEDED WIN FOR HOLLYWOOD, which for years has been largely stuck in a creative rut of meaningless remakes and sequels. A MASSIVE PR CAMPAIGN FOR A MILITARY OPERATION GEARED TOWARD PRESERVING US IMPERIAL HEGEMONY IS THE BIGGEST THING TO HIT SHOW BUSINESS SINCE SPIELBERG, which is why Zelensky was presented with an Academy Award by actor Sean Penn for his stunning and transcendent performance in the series.

It was unclear in the beginning if audiences would warm to PROXY WAR, with some taken aback by the unprecedented media coverage being GIVEN TO A WAR THAT THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT WAS OFFICIALLY NOT EVEN INVOLVED IN. Critics initially panned the practice of ascribing Hollywood action hero-sounding quotes like "I NEED AMMO, NOT A RIDE" to Zelensky when he never actually said them, as well as the use of blatant atrocity propaganda full of ham-fisted plotlines like Russians raping babies, and the hackneyed plagiarization of the Libya propaganda narrative that the evil leader of the day is giving his troops Viagra to help them commit mass rape.

But the numbers are in and it turns out THE WORLD IS HEAD-OVER-HEELS IN LOVE WITH PROXY WAR'S UNIQUE COMBINATION OF REALITY TV, INSPIRATIONAL STORYTELLING, MIND-CRUSHING INTERNET CENSORSHIP, AND HIGH-OCTANE WAR PROPAGANDA. Naysayers may complain that they are tired of having their intelligence insulted, but as far as John and Jane Q Public are concerned, IT CAN'T GET INSULTED ENOUGH.

YES SIR, WESTERN CULTURE MAY BE A STAGNANT CESSPOOL OF PLASTIC PERFORMERS, EMPIRE SMUT AND CORPORATE RIMJOBS, BUT BOY HOWDY WE CAN STILL SPIN A GOOD YARN WHEN WE NEED TO. Stay tuned for Season Two! Will Zelensky finally get a guest spot on Saturday Night Live? Will leading lady Olena Zelenska release that new fashion line? Will rumors prove true of a Muppet movie in Kyiv? Stay tuned and find out soon, right after this short commercial break.

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/the-season-finale-of-the-hit-show

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And, as noted here yesterday, Congress has succeeded magnificently. [The Comments to this article are very much well worth the read.] … :

AS THE PENTAGON FAILS ANOTHER AUDIT, CONGRESS WANTS TO SPEND EVEN MORE ON "DEFENSE" by Ryan McMaken December 6, 2022

In November, the Pentagon announced it had failed yet another audit. In spite of the fact that the Department of Defense has had years to get its act together, the Pentagon still doesn’t know how it spends or maintains its trillions of dollars’ worth of taxpayer-funded assets and income. As Breaking Defense noted last month:

“The Pentagon has failed its annual audit for the fifth year in a row, an expected result that nonetheless represents something of a disappointment for an effort that officials hoped would continue steady, if incremental, year over year progress. . . . THE PENTAGON HAS FAILED EVERY AUDIT SINCE 2018, THE FIRST AUDIT OF THE DEPARTMENT EVER PERFORMED IN ITS HISTORY.”

ACCOUNTING LIKE THIS, OF COURSE, WOULD LAND MOST PRIVATE-SECTOR C-SUITE EXECUTIVES IN PRISON FOR VARIOUS FINANCIAL CRIMES. Moreover, this is the same government that insists it has the prerogative to spy on most of our banking transactions and that has even recently started demanding that we report every Venmo and PayPal transaction over $600. But that’s not how things work in the government sector. THE PENTAGON CAN FAIL AN AUDIT ON LITERALLY TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, AND ALL THAT MEANS IS “THERE’S ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT.”

Indeed, rather than tie funding to accurate information about how taxpayer money is spent, Congress this month has mostly been debating how much to increase defense spending.

Last week, Congress began hammering out a compromise on increasing the defense budget yet again. Although there continues to be wrangling over the Pentagon’s covid vaccine mandate, and just how many more weapons to send to Ukraine, the proposed budget would be an 8 percent increase over the 2022 budget. SOME REPUBLICAN LEADERS HAD SOUGHT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER INCREASE OF 3 TO 5 PERCENT, BUT AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE, THE GOP IS MORE THAN HAPPY TO SIGN OFF ON EVER LARGER BUDGETS SO LONG AS THEY BENEFIT CERTAIN INTEREST GROUPS. The White House had sought $802 billion, but the final tally is likely to come in over $840 billion.

TRILLIONS SPENT ON FAILURE

A budget of this magnitude would be at an all-time high in current dollars. Looking at all defense functions, including spending on nuclear arms through the Department of Energy, the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) estimate for 2023 is now $827 billion (see table 5.1). That’s an increase of 7.8 percent over 2022, and an increase of 14 percent over 2009, when the United States government was busy with the “surge” in Afghanistan and various occupation and counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq. THE US EVENTUALLY LOST BOTH WARS, AFTER SPENDING MORE THAN $2 TRILLION. MOREOVER, THOSE WARS WERE HEAVILY FINANCED BY BORROWED MONEY, AND AMERICAN TAXPAYERS MAY NOW BE ON THE HOOK FOR MORE THAN $6 TRILLION IN INTEREST PAYMENTS.

Today, the AFGHANISTAN regime is in the hands of the Taliban, just as it was before the US invasion in 2001. Meanwhile, in IRAQ, the US invasion, by destroying the Iraqi state, created a power vacuum that was filled by the Islamic State (ISIS). Today Saddam Hussein’s secular state has been replaced by a pro-Iran Shia regime. Given that the US regime treats IRAN as its implacable enemy, it’s hard to imagine how the US regime and its generals could have been less competent in these wars.

ANOTHER SIDE EFFECT OF THE WARS HAS BEEN TO MULTIPLY COSTS FOR VETERANS AFFAIRS. Veteran services, of course, are essential in recruitment and retainment of troops. These costs ought not to be considered separate from defense costs. They are simply deferred compensation that is promised to soldiers at the time of service. Thus, if we include veteran costs as we should, we find that defense costs have ballooned even more. IN THE 2023 FISCAL YEAR, TOTAL DEFENSE COSTS, INCLUDING VETERAN EXPENSES, ARE ESTIMATED TO SOAR OVER $1.2 TRILLION. THAT’S UP 10 PERCENT FROM THE 2022 FISCAL YEAR, AND UP A WHOPPING 42 PERCENT SINCE 2009.

Continued at https://mises.org/wire/pentagon-fails-another-audit-congress-wants-spend-even-more-defense [EMPHASES added.]

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Long discussion about US Intelligence community & conflict with Russia - Ray McGovern, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

https://rumble.com/v1z92um-us-intelligence-community-and-conflict-with-russia-ray-mcgovern-alexander-m.html

A lot of the discussion laments what Harry Truman lamented when he wrote this op-ed in The Washington Post, the link to the original publication now removed, essentially saying the CIA is gone rogue.

Harry Truman who created the CIA, wanted it hauled in for it's excesses.

The Washington Post December 22, 1963 – page A11

Harry Truman Writes: Limit CIA Role To Intelligence

By Harry S Truman Copyright, 1963, by Harry S Truman

INDEPENDENCE, MO., Dec. 21 — I think it has become necessary to take another look at the purpose and operations of our Central Intelligence Agency—CIA. At least, I would like to submit here the original reason why I thought it necessary to organize this Agency during my Administration, what I expected it to do and how it was to operate as an arm of the President.

I think it is fairly obvious that by and large a President's performance in office is as effective as the information he has and the information he gets. That is to say, that assuming the President himself possesses a knowledge of our history, a sensitive understanding of our institutions, and an insight into the needs and aspirations of the people, he needs to have available to him the most accurate and up-to-the-minute information on what is going on everywhere in the world, and particularly of the trends and developments in all the danger spots in the contest between East and West. This is an immense task and requires a special kind of an intelligence facility.

Of course, every President has available to him all the information gathered by the many intelligence agencies already in existence. The Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, Interior and others are constantly engaged in extensive information gathering and have done excellent work.

But their collective information reached the President all too frequently in conflicting conclusions. At times, the intelligence reports tended to be slanted to conform to established positions of a given department. This becomes confusing and what's worse, such intelligence is of little use to a President in reaching the right decisions.

Therefore, I decided to set up a special organization charged with the collection of all intelligence reports from every available source, and to have those reports reach me as President without department “treatment” or interpretations.

I wanted and needed the information in its “natural raw” state and in as comprehensive a volume as it was practical for me to make full use of it. But the most important thing about this move was to guard against the chance of intelligence being used to influence or to lead the President into unwise decisions—and I thought it was necessary that the President do his own thinking and evaluating.

Since the responsibility for decision making was his—then he had to be sure that no information is kept from him for whatever reason at the discretion of any one department or agency, or that unpleasant facts be kept from him. There are always those who would want to shield a President from bad news or misjudgments to spare him from being "upset."

For some time I have been disturbed by the way CIA has been diverted from its original assignment. It has become an operational and at times a policy-making arm of the Government. This has led to trouble and may have compounded our difficulties in several explosive areas.

I never had any thought that when I set up the CIA that it would be injected into peacetime cloak and dagger operations. Some of the complications and embarrassment I think we have experienced are in part attributable to the fact that this quiet intelligence arm of the President has been so removed from its intended role that it is being interpreted as a symbol of sinister and mysterious foreign intrigue—and a subject for cold war enemy propaganda.

With all the nonsense put out by Communist propaganda about "Yankee imperialism,“ ”exploitive capitalism,“ ”war-mongering,“ ”monopolists," in their name-calling assault on the West, the last thing we needed was for the CIA to be seized upon as something akin to a subverting influence in the affairs of other people.

I well knew the first temporary director of the CIA, Adm. Souers, and the later permanent directors of the CIA, Gen. Hoyt Vandenberg and Allen Dulles. These were men of the highest character, patriotism and integrity—and I assume this is true of all those who continue in charge.

But there are now some searching questions that need to be answered. I, therefore, would like to see the CIA be restored to its original assignment as the intelligence arm of the President, and that whatever else it can properly perform in that special field—and that its operational duties be terminated or properly used elsewhere.

We have grown up as a nation, respected for our free institutions and for our ability to maintain a free and open society. There is something about the way the CIA has been functioning that is casting a shadow over our historic position and I feel that we need to correct it.

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HAS THE COUNTER REVOLUTION ARRIVED IN THE US? by Tom Luongo December 6, 2022

There is no bigger heresy at this point in history than to suggest the US is not the main source of great evil in the world. There was a time, when the exact opposite was the case.

Today, however, as war rages in Ukraine and everyone in power in the West says they want peace but keep shoveling money and weapons into the conflict, the message is clear.

WE WANT THIS WAR. WE NEED THIS WAR AND IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT.

WE WILL HAVE THIS WAR.

But, here’s the big heresy, it’s not just the US that wants this war. Here’s another one: Is ‘The US’ as a global actor even exist anymore?

WE ARE NOW DIGESTING THE MOST IRRESPONSIBLE ESCALATION YET BY “UKRAINE,” A DRONE STRIKE ON A STRATEGIC AIRBASE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA ATTACKING ONE LEG OF ITS NUCLEAR TRIAD — DAMAGING STRATEGIC BOMBERS CAPABLE OF DELIVERING NUCLEAR WARHEADS.

THIS IS AN EXPLICIT REDLINE FOR RUSSIA.

Regardless of what side of the line you stand on, Ukraine’s or Russia’s, in this war (or refuse to even define where the line is), THIS IS A MOMENT THAT SHOULD CRYSTALLIZE FOR YOU THAT THIS IS A TURNING POINT IN THE WAR… AND NOT FOR THE BETTER.

Escalations like this are a sign of weakness. They are tantamount to begging Russia to over-react, to force Putin’s hand and strike Ukraine mercilessly, which it seems they did in response.

UKRAINE CROSSED THE LINE WHERE RUSSIA WOULD BE FREE TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PER THEIR USE DOCTRINE ON ATTACKING THEIR NUCLEAR DETERRENCE CAPABILITY.

The Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to be a time of hope, right? The Cold War was over. The free world triumphed over totalitarianism again.

A triumph of our system over theirs.

But at what cost?

THE US BEGAN THE RAPID RISE INTO EMPIRE, ESCHEWING THE HUMBLE FOREIGN POLICY DIRECTIVES OF THE FOUNDERS TO EXPAND NATO INTO THE VACUUM CREATED BY THE END OF THE USSR. The European Union began its formalization into a political and economic behemoth, introducing the euro while its agents deep within the UK overthrew a rightfully obstinate Margaret Thatcher to bring the UK into the fold.

These western institutions were supposed to be the promise of a better life was supposedly for the former Warsaw Pact… well, except Serbia, but only Putin apologists talk about that.

The costs for the Cold War were obvious to everyone east of the Berlin Wall. But the costs for the West were equally substantial. TO FIGHT THE COLD WAR THE US WAS TURNED INTO A MASSIVE CORPORATIST NIGHTMARE, THE SECURITY STATE JUSTIFIED AT EVERY TURN AND OUR MONETARY SYSTEM OF HARD MONEY DISMANTLED.

That counter revolution really was at the “counter of the store” as THE US MORPHED FROM THE COUNTRY WITH THE CLEANEST BALANCE SHEET IN THE WORLD INTO THE BIGGEST DEBTOR THE WORLD HAS EVER, AND LIKELY, WILL EVER SEE VIA A VORACIOUS CONSUMER GORGING ON EVER CHEAPER FIAT MONEY.

THE FREE WORLD WAS ENSLAVED BY ITS LEADERS’ ARROGANCE AND HUBRIS AND THE PEOPLE BOUGHT OFF WITH CHEAP MONEY FOR DISPOSABLE GOODS TO MOLLIFY THE ANXIETY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL DAMAGE DONE TO TWO GENERATIONS WITH LIVING UNDER THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR WAR.

Now make that four generations thanks to “Ukraine.”

Continued at https://tomluongo.me/2022/12/06/has-the-counter-revolution-arrived-in-the-us/ [EMPHASES added.]

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Dec 7, 2022·edited Dec 7, 2022

What's next?

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Bill, email notice of this new post appeared immediately after watching this interview of ex-CIA Intelligence Philip Giraldi.

https://youtu.be/n1y1rr-tEaE

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deletedDec 8, 2022·edited Dec 8, 2022
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