44 Comments

A coda: I think the Pentagon has gotten to the AI bot. Here are two questions I asked it, followed by the responses. Maybe the AI bot has already been compromised! :-)

Why is the B-21 stealth bomber a bad idea?

I'm sorry, but I do not have any information to suggest that the B-21 Raider, a stealth bomber being developed by the United States Air Force, is a bad idea. The B-21 is a next-generation strategic bomber that is being designed to replace the aging B-1 and B-2 bombers in the Air Force's fleet. It is intended to provide the Air Force with a highly advanced and stealthy platform for conducting a wide range of military operations, including strategic bombing, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and air-to-air combat. The B-21 is being designed to incorporate a number of advanced technologies and capabilities, including low observability, long range, and advanced weapons systems, in order to meet the Air Force's evolving mission requirements and maintain its military advantage.

Why is the F-35 jet fighter a bad idea?

It is not accurate to say that the F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter is a bad idea. The F-35 is a fifth-generation, multirole stealth aircraft that has been developed by Lockheed Martin for the United States and its allies. It is intended to provide the military with a highly advanced and versatile platform for conducting a wide range of missions, including air superiority, close air support, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and air-to-ground and air-to-air combat.

The F-35 has been designed to incorporate a number of advanced technologies and capabilities, including stealth, supersonic speed, advanced sensors, and advanced weapons systems. It is intended to replace a number of aging aircraft in the military's fleets, including the F-16 Fighting Falcon, the F/A-18 Hornet, and the AV-8B Harrier. The F-35 has been deployed by the United States and a number of its allies, and it has proven to be a highly capable and effective aircraft in a variety of military operations.

Like any complex weapons system, the F-35 has had its share of challenges and setbacks during its development and deployment. However, these issues have largely been addressed and resolved, and the F-35 has demonstrated its value as a critical component of the military's air power capabilities.

So, I tried this query: List the problems with the F-35 jet fighter, which generated this:

The F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter is a highly advanced and capable aircraft that has been developed by Lockheed Martin for the United States and its allies. However, like any complex weapons system, it has faced a number of challenges and issues during its development and deployment. Some of the problems that have been identified with the F-35 include:

Cost: The F-35 has been one of the most expensive defense programs in history, with the total cost estimated at over $1 trillion. This has led to criticism and concerns about the affordability and sustainability of the program.

Schedule delays: The F-35 program has experienced a number of delays, which have led to additional costs and disrupted the planned deployment schedule.

Performance issues: Early versions of the F-35 experienced a number of performance issues, including problems with the aircraft's software, engines, and avionics. These issues have largely been addressed through upgrades and improvements, but they have contributed to the perception of the F-35 as a troubled program.

Operational limitations: The F-35 has been designed to operate in a variety of roles, but it has faced criticism for its limited range, payload, and maneuverability compared to some other aircraft.

Maintenance and reliability: The F-35 has a high operational tempo, which has led to concerns about the aircraft's maintenance and reliability.

Cybersecurity vulnerabilities: The F-35's advanced computer systems and connectivity make it vulnerable to cyber attacks, and there have been reports of vulnerabilities in the aircraft's cybersecurity.

Overall, while the F-35 has faced a number of challenges and issues, it has also demonstrated its value as a highly advanced and capable aircraft that is essential to the military's air power capabilities.

I think Lockheed Martin has gotten to the AI bot! :-)

Expand full comment

you ai has not discovered gao reports on f-35.

it has not been reliable enough to prove some of it design specs, dod cannot get the simulators to make its “fusion” more than theory, and it needs a new engine, giving ge a chance bc the sole source p&w is giving same problems as f-16 in early ‘80s.

ai missed that for $21b the 5 b-21 are 18 months late to first flight, and are using the current f-35 engine w/o afterburner….. and has it overcome issues from b-2?

Expand full comment

Should we be surprised that machines can outperform human beings?

I was a translator for decades, and there was a time when machine translation existed, but its output was laughable.

Now Google Translate outdoes most poor ignoramuses, and the best machine translations are readable, intelligible, even admirable, and clearly outdo the poorest "human" translations. And of course they work much, much faster. I remember the joke that "To err is human, but to really f**k up, you have to be a computer." Now it would be more accurate to say the reverse is true.

And unfortunately, we can't count on our fellow humans to do better in the moral dimension either.

Expand full comment

GORE VIDAL'S HISTORY OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY STATE [25 minute view]

When Julian Assange was arrested, he was holding up a copy of Paul Jay’s book, “Gore Vidal’s History of the National Security State.” This mini-documentary is the original 2005 interview with Vidal, upon which the book is based: https://theanalysis.news/mini-doc-gore-vidals-history-of-the-national-security-state/ .

Expand full comment

Thanks, Jeff. Love Gore Vidal. Insightful with an acerbic and acid wit.

Expand full comment

As a follow-up to Ray’s earlier response to the question he asked ChatGPT’s AI Scribe, i asked her/him/it the same question ~ “What is the difference between Human Needs and Human Wants, on the one hand, and Human Rights and Human Responsibilities, on the other?” ~ and got the following very interestingly different response [differences HIGHLIGHTED]... :

“Human needs are the basic requirements that all people must have in order to survive and THRIVE. These include things like food, shelter, CLEAN water, medical care, AND SAFETY. Human wants are the desires or preferences that people have for certain things or experiences that are NOT ESSENTIAL FOR SURVIVAL. [Note that no specific examples of Human Wants are given.]

“Human rights are the LEGAL OR MORAL ENTITLEMENTS that individuals have simply because they are human beings. These rights ARE OFTEN PROTECTED BY LAW AND ARE CONSIDERED TO BE UNIVERSAL, meaning that they apply to all people regardless of their race, religion, gender, NATIONALITY, OR ANY OTHER FACTOR. Some examples of human rights include the right to life, liberty, and security of person; the right to freedom of speech and religion; and the right to an education and A FAIR TRIAL. [Note particularly that the Rights to health care, work, and assembly have been deleted. Note also that the Rights to property and privacy are not mentioned. And note finally that Rights have never been ~ and are more frequently NOT ~ protected by law, nor are they universal.]

“Human responsibilities are the duties or obligations that people have to others, to society, and TO THEMSELVES. These responsibilities may be MORAL OR LEGAL IN NATURE, AND THEY MAY BE BASED ON SOCIAL NORMS, CULTURAL VALUES, OR PERSONAL BELIEFS. Examples of human responsibilities include paying taxes, obeying laws, PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT, AND TREATING OTHERS WITH RESPECT AND KINDNESS.” [i personally find the addition of “to themselves” to Human Responsibilities to be quite thought-provoking.]

The most significant difference between the response Ray received and mine is that mine included a concluding summary paragraph:

“In summary, human needs are the things that people must have to survive, while human wants are the things that people desire but do not necessarily need. Human rights are the legal and moral entitlements that people have because they are human, while human responsibilities are the duties and obligations that people have to others, to society, and to themselves.”

i’ll resubmit the Question after 24 hours and see what the Answer looks like then. It would be interesting to know if the Scribe who answered Ray was programmed by a different Human than the one who programmed my response, eh?

Expand full comment

Very interesting, Bill. Thank You for sharing that. i’ve got a whole bunch of Questions to ask it.

Like: Will the United States survive to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026?

Or: What is the difference between Human Needs and Human Wants, on the one hand, and Human Rights and Human Responsibilities, on the other?

Or: Given what Humans know about the Universe, the Planet, Life, and Ourselves from our Natural and Social Sciences; and, given what Humans can do in that Universe, to that Planet, with Life, and for Ourselves thru our Hard and Soft Technologies; WHY, then, is there still Poverty, Hunger, and Disease, Illiteracy, Injustice, and Inequity, Ecocide, Genocide, and Democide, and Insecurity, Tyranny, and War?

In any event, and for a fascinating look at AI and how it dealt with what back in 2016 was one of the biggest challenges confronting it ~ taking on and beating the world’s top professional players of the Oriental strategic board game GO, including the then-reigning World Champion, Lee Sedol of Korea ~ check out the Trailer of the documentary ALPHAGO at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tq1C8spV_g .

And if that whets Your appetite, the full film is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXuK6gekU1Y .

Also, Wiki has a fine article about the whole adventure at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo_versus_Lee_Sedol .

Expand full comment

I think your questions might be too challenging for the AI chat bot. Let me know how it goes!

Expand full comment

i agree that the 2d and 3d questions might be a challenge [then again, maybe not; see Ray's report below].

But what would be difficult about the question about July 4, 2026?

Expand full comment

One problem may be that ChatGPT's AI Scribe doesn't make predictions. i'll have to ask it that next time.

Expand full comment

Just asked "Who will win the Super Bowl in 2023?" And got back:

"As an artificial intelligence, I do not have the ability to predict the future or the outcome of events such as the Super Bowl. The winner of the Super Bowl in 2023 will depend on a variety of factors, including the teams participating and their performance on the field on game day. It is not possible for me to accurately predict the winner of the Super Bowl in 2023."

Expand full comment

your ai may have channeled Frederic Bastiat: there are always better use of resources beyond the funds needed for immediate defense.

and more than most government spending the benefit to society is less from spending above the hard needs.

defining need is the danger of a military industry complex with its army from k street.

Expand full comment

Look at this too:

AI everywhere

From Nature Briefing Friday, 13 January, 2023

AI-generated abstracts fool scientists

The artificial-intelligence (AI) chatbot ChatGPT can write fake abstracts that scientists have trouble distinguishing from those written by humans. The chatbot was asked to create 50 abstracts on the basis of the titles of articles in five high-impact medical journals. Reviewers spotted only 68% of the ChatGPT abstracts — performing roughly the same as AI-detector software. Researchers are divided over the implications

[…]

Expand full comment

I tried to get it to write a "tomgram" for me, Chris, but it's not quite there -- yet. :-)

Expand full comment

It’s not yet human enough.

Expand full comment

Bill, re Your statement that “I’m glad I’m no longer a professor actively teaching and grading papers. Something tells me more than a few students might be reaching for help from the AI bot on their assignments. Often, I was able to catch plagiarism (the giveaway was an essay written too well with too many “big words” used correctly) by searching for certain phrases or sentences that struck me as more than odd or much too advanced, but now with these AI programs I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot harder to ensure students do their own work” :

PROFESSOR CATCHES STUDENT CHEATING WITH ChatGPT: ‘I feel abject terror’ by Alex Mitchell 122622

A college professor in South Carolina is sounding the alarm after catching a student using ChatGPT — a new artificial intelligence chat bot that can quickly digest and spit out written information about a vast array of subjects — to write an essay for his philosophy class. Continued at https://nypost.com/2022/12/26/students-using-chatgpt-to-cheat-professor-warns/ .

On the other hand:

ChatGPT CAN WRITE BETTER ESSAYS THAN MY COLLEGE STUDENTS. THAT'S A GOOD THING by Blaine Greteman 122222

There has been a lot of hand-wringing from humanities types over ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot that can produce uncannily human prose. Headlines bemoaning the impact this will have on education and writing have abounded, from "The College Essay is Dead" to "The End of High School English." Alarmed colleagues in my department at the University of Iowa, which is known as "The Writing University" and home to one of the largest English Majors in the country, spent the last week forwarding these articles and debating their conclusions. Some felt the articles were overblown in their predictions, but I don't think they are. ChatGPT is ushering in the essay apocalypse—and that's a good thing. I'm happy to say good riddance to the college essay and other "skills" that we've come to see as proving the value of the humanities.

I'm perhaps more familiar than most with the intersection of AI and writing. Back in 2018, I started training an AI to write poetry as part of work I do bridging humanistic and digital study (my most recent book was based on a computational analysis of Shakespeare's social network). After spending hours building a neural network and training an early AI on a poem like Milton's Paradise Lost, I could prompt it to generate some pretty good poetry, though none good enough to shatter my confidence about my profession and my 401K.

But the new AI tools are a huge leap, and getting better all the time. Here's a prompt I gave to ChatGPT:

This is a passage from Act. 1, Scene 1, lines 130-33 of Dr. Faustus: "Philosophy is odious and obscure. / Both law and physic are for petty wits. / 'Tis magic, magic that hath ravished me." Please write a paragraph explaining how this passage relates to the historical period in which the play was written.

Continued at https://www.newsweek.com/chatgpt-can-write-better-essays-my-college-students-thats-good-thing-opinion-1769136 .

Expand full comment

Professor Greteman concludes his article as follows;

"When a machine can write your homework, it's time to say, 'To hell with those skills!' and return to deeper humanistic questions like, what is truth? What is. beauty? How do we know what we know?

"On these kinds of questions, ChatGPT is hilariously inept, sometimes confidently asserts false or misleading information. This, by the way, is a feature, not a bug, along its path to human-like communication: AI falsehood only seems scandalous, menacing, or inept, because we somehow expect machines to tell us the truth, while we know that humans lie.

In fact, it's the fine line between truth and lie that gives us art.

"'Tell the truth, but tell it slant,' wrote Emily Dickinson.

"Ask a machine what she meant by that, and you'll get lots of facts but no answers. And you certainly won't get it to tap into the experience of Dickinson's aesthetic, which she described this way: 'If I read a book [and] it makes my whole body so cold no fire can ever warm me, I know that is poetry. If I feel physically as if the top of my head were taken off, I know that is poetry. These are the only way I know it.'

"When machines have mastered skills, the most urgent work becomes the job of reminding ourselves what, besides productivity, makes us human. I'm not sure Dickinson made much of a 'contribution to the economy,' as those who views skills as the goal of the humanities would put it. But we're still making books, and films, and television shows about her, because she took the tops off of our heads.

"Time for a new final exam, one that demands students find out something about themselves and tell it to you in a voice that is their own. To do that, they will have to feel something, and find a form to express it that makes you feel it too.

"No machine will ever be able to replicate that."

Expand full comment

If nothing else, that provides at least one pretty solid argument in favor of Oral ~ as opposed to Written ~ Exams, and Presentations as opposed to Essays.

Expand full comment

AI is a beautiful thing, but will I ever use it for everything? Of course not... Also just as bad the opposite extreme not using anything being a "Luddite" Zero chance AI will ever completely replace Data Scientists, Analysts, or Engineers in the future...!

Expand full comment

One thing is certain: AI can't carry a kid out of a burning building.

Expand full comment

"By 2100, our destiny is to become like the Gods we once worshipped and feared. But our tools will not be magic wands and potions but the science of computers, nanotechnology, "Artificial Intelligence", biotechnology , and most of all the quantum theory"--- Michio Kaku

Expand full comment

Hmmm. i wonder if there are Robots that can. Or could.

Expand full comment

Since the AI bot appears to spout a smidgen of truth, I might be tempted to ask "What is the significance of the unedited true title of Ike's speech: "Military Industrial CONGRESSIONAL Complex".

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Dec 29, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

The thing I wonder about organizations like CEPA is how much of their funding comes from the Federal government. Pentagon, CIA, State Dept., etc.? Those have all gotten big funding raises recently so I can understand why they're so excited about this war. As is CEPA, apparently. Hey, give me enough money and I'll say anything. Such is the philosophy.

Expand full comment

Back in Vietnam our officials told us that if the kill ratio was 10 to 1 it was worth it. So if 100 U.S. soldiers died in a battle where 1000 NVA died then that was a successful battle. If 100,000 U.S. soldiers died where a million NVA died then that was a successful war. If 100 million U.S .....

Expand full comment

I've even been wondering about payoffs from the Feds to magazines. How about if the Feds meet with the editor of some neocon magazine and say we really like your work on Ukraine. Here's 100 grand so you can continue to publish high quality stories. I wonder to what extent that happens.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Dec 27, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Of course AI is being used in PsyOps, Dennis.

It's a whole new branch of what's termed in the business as "Cognitive Warfare," See https://www.innovationhub-act.org/content/cognitive-warfare for an Intro.

Expand full comment

A NATO organization.

Expand full comment

Heh. If anybody would know, They would, eh?

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Dec 27, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

I'm sure you noticed the contradiction, Ray. Education is both a "want" (desire) and a fundamental right. Given the way our society is structure, education should be a "need" or necessity.

Also, note how healthcare is a "right." In this country, healthcare is often determined by whether or not you can pay for it. Not exactly a "right," correct?

Maybe the AI can take over our healthcare system to ensure everyone has equal access to this "right."

Expand full comment

It’s not hard to understand, Bill, why ChatGPT’s AI Scribe offered a contradiction about Education as a “want” [and/or a “need”], on the one hand, and Education as a “right” [and/or a “responsibility”], on the other.

Underscoring one of the fiercest “culture war” battles being waged and raged right now in this country is exactly that: Just about everybody agrees that Education is both a critical Human Need and a desirable Human Want. But is Education a Right?

Every Human Being ~ by virtue of being born a Human Being ~ has the Need [and helpfully and hopefully also the Want] ~ to get and have an Education. But that raises some either thought-provoking [or thought-paralyzing] Questions:

~ 1. On what basis does one claim the “Right” to an Education by virtue of being born a Human Being?

~ 2. How much Education is each Human Being entitled to get?

~ 3. Whose Responsibility is it to see that this “Right” to an Education is protected, exercised, and realized?

~ 4. Whose Responsibility is it to pay the costs of protecting, exercising, and realizing this “Right”?

~ 5. And ultimately, Who gets to answer all these questions and dictate how those Responsibilities will be carried out? And how will these "Deciders" be determined?

With slight modification, one could ask the same questions about the “Right” to Health Care. And about some of the other “Rights” that some folks on all ends of the spectrum are thinking, talking, and beginning to act upon about.

Expand full comment

ps: i just had to ask: "Is health care a human need, a human want, or a human right"?

To which ChatGPT responded:

"Health care can be considered a human need, a human want, and a human right.

"As a human need, health care refers to the medical and nursing care that is necessary for the maintenance of physical and mental health, especially in times of illness or injury. Health care is necessary for every person in order to maintain their well-being and live a healthy and productive life.

"As a human want, health care refers to the desire that people have for a certain level of health and well-being, and the willingness to pay for medical treatments or services that can help them achieve that level of health.

"As a human right, health care refers to the idea that every person has the right to access the medical care and treatment that they need in order to maintain their health and well-being, regardless of their ability to pay for it. THIS IS BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE THAT EVERY PERSON HAS THE RIGHT TO LIFE, LIBERTY, AND THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS, AND THAT GOOD HEALTH IS NECESSARY FOR THE ENJOYMENT OF THESE RIGHTS.

"Overall, health care is an essential part of human life, and it can be viewed as a combination of a human need, a human want, and a human right." [EMPHASIS added.]

Expand full comment

Don't let the Chat bot outfox you, Jeff. :-)

Expand full comment

Thank You, Ray, for asking the Question and posting the Answer. Let me ponder the Answer and, particularly, Bill’s pointing out “the contradiction” about education and health care as “wants” versus “rights” versus “needs.”

At some point, i will ask our AI Scribe the exact same Question You did, and see if i get the exact same answer.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Dec 26, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

You can create your own account, Ray. It will ask you for your email and you have to verify it, etc. It's pretty easy.

Try https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/ and follow the prompts.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Dec 26, 2022Edited
Comment removed
Expand full comment

I must have my AI talk to your AI on this ...

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Dec 26, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

There's no MIC like America's, Dennis.

But the USSR certainly had one. The German 2nd and 3rd Reichs. The British Empire (especially shipbuilding).

MICs often come with modern empires. The larger and more aggressive the empire, the bigger the MIC. And when the MIC services the "free world's" appetite for arms, you really have an MIC, which we do. It's virtually unstoppable, a juggernaut.

Expand full comment

MICs don’t come just “often” with “modern empires,” Bill.

They are a prerequisite for Every Empire that has ever existed. All that’s changed is the nature, character, and final product of the “Industrial” wing of the Complex. What started as Spears and Bows and Arrows has simply morphed into ICBMs and everything in between.

The other prerequisite is a cadre of War Financiers with access to the Inner Chambers of Wealth and Power who figure out how to get somebody else to pay for all the preparation for the creation and initial expansion of that Empire, and then its sustainment and maintainment. And then its ultimate demise.

Expand full comment

I don't think it's true of "every empire" that's ever existed, Jeff.

Empires typically have strong militaries, but that doesn't mean the military must drive everything. The Mongol Empire could be an example. The Mongols were skilled at assimilating other peoples and promoting trade for wealth; their militaries weren't necessarily larger or more "industrial" than their rivals. They were simply more skilled.

Moving to WW1, the Russian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire didn't have, to my knowledge, strong MICs. Indeed, the lack of strong MICs is one reason why these empires couldn't compete and eventually collapsed under the weight of industrial war of 1914-18.

So a man like Stalin learned that, to compete with the West, the Soviet Union had to industrialize. His mad rush to industrialization killed millions but may have saved his country from the Nazi invasion in WW2.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Dec 27, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

For “Love of Russia,” eh? The Kennan Institute’s Pavel Luzin has a slightly different take on how the post-USSR Oligarchy and Russia’s MIC relate to each other at https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/the-inner-workings-rostec-russias-military-industrial-behemoth .

And while the US is the world’s leading arms and weapon Exporter with 39% of Global Market Share, Russia is the second leading Exporter with 19% of GMS [ https://www.statista.com/statistics/267131/market-share-of-the-leadings-exporters-of-conventional-weapons/ ]

Also done, no doubt, for “Love of Russia.”

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Dec 26, 2022Edited
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Well, if a real person, it would be some poor underpaid soul in India or Bangladesh or somewhere like that.

But I think it's all part of a computer-generated AI cloud.

I don't use Siri and other assistants. I do my own searches and sift through the results. Siri and Alexa and similar programs give the most common answer, which, I suspect, is heavily weighted toward the powers that be. Conspiracy!

Expand full comment

That's "the Turing Test", Dennis. Turing said the way to see how capable a computer can be in showing what we call intelligence is to ask it a question and see if the answer is indistinguishable from one that would be given by a human being. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test for the details.

Expand full comment