Is the Russia-Ukraine War "stalemated"? Which side is "winning"? Is Putin on the brink of total victory?
A couple of readers have suggested Russia is clearly winning and that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. My honest response is that I don't know.
Both sides have suffered heavy casualties. Both sides seem bogged down in static warfare that resembles World War I on the Western Front.
Of course, it's true that Russia has captured territory. It's true that Russia has the advantage of numbers. It's possible that a major Russian offensive in the spring could be decisive. It's also possible that Ukrainian resistance will continue to remain stalwart. I don't think it's likely that a Ukrainian offensive will break the Russian lines and lead to a Russian collapse this year.
What I want to see is a diplomatic settlement that ends the killing on both sides. I'm not rooting for either side in this war. I'm rooting for peace, which I believe will benefit both sides.
I trust Alexander. He has seldom been wrong. Not 100% - but always close.
And he is the go-to commentator for many folks in the know.
Agrees with Scott Ritter, Col Douglas Macgregor, Lawrence Wilkerson the retired Army Colonel and former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell, and Ray McGovern among others.
Thats good enough for me, Bill.
And Alexander is highly sort after for interviews by many credible internet sites.
And you heard the Ukrainians say they will NEVER negotiate, eh?
Yep, Scott Ritter is a pedophile with an ax to grind, and Alexander Mercouris is a Putin Puppet who made ONE error of judgement. Suggesting it was serious shows you have not studied what really happened.
Better throw the baby out with the bath water then eh!
And more than sometimes we "distrust" people simply because they disagree with our biases and views. Like you just did with Alexander.
Dennis, you're being argumentative and putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Ritter was a "pedophile" -- that's your accusation. Mercouris -- a "Putin puppet" -- again, your words. And I admit I'm not an expert on British law -- are you? Please tell me "what really happened."
I don't "distrust" Alexander, but I'm not sure why I should trust everything he says about the Russia-Ukraine War. What makes him the font of truth here?
COL Macgregor--I've heard him talk; his views, I think, are worthy of being heard.
My favorite reason for reading your always well written screed is that you have many times written a column that makes the case for a neutral foreign policy and ethos. Please don't stop.
I am a regular reader of your column and appreciate your overall assessment. It is refreshing to read someone who recognizes academic s... of the Cox type. She is an example of the failure of solid training as a historian and she is in good company. Graduate history education is not like the one I experienced in the late sixties. But I am puzzled by your frequent mentioning of a stalemate in Ukraine. You seem to either not know what is actually happening in that theater of war or deliberately overlooking the fact that Russia has defeated the Ukrainian offensive of last year, destroyed much of the Ukrainian army (see Ukraine’s desperate effort to force more people into its military - teenagers, old men, and women). The actually numbers of dead on either side we will not know for a very long time, but the evidence seems to suggest that Ukraine’s casualties far outnumber those of Russia. Ukraine won’t last more than a few weeks if military equipment doesn’t arrive from the west. This is not, in my book, a stalemate. Putin is doing to Ukraine what Stalin did to Hitler’s Wehrmacht after 1942. If Putin were not succeeding we would not hear the recent frantic statements by western leaders that Putin will not stop with Ukraine.
I have a friend who follows the war on Dailykos and he tells me the opposite: that Russia has suffered more dearly, that Ukraine has a strong chance of winning, as long as the U.S. and EU keep shoveling aid to Zelensky.
So, I'll admit I'm not sure what's happening in the war. To me, it appears to be a stalemate, with neither side able or possibly willing to win decisively.
It makes sense to me, however, that Putin is better able to sustain a stalemate, given Russia's resources (men, materiel).
Bill, you are a historian and you rely on the word of a friend who gets his information from Dailykos. If a student had written a paper for me on the basis of such flimsy sourcing he/she would have received an F. Yesterday’s German pro Ukrainian magazine FOCUS reported that Zelensky is depressed. I suggest you delve more deeply into the strategy of the Russian military. It is NOT about territory (thought they already took control of about 20% of Ukraine), but slowly and systematically grinding down Ukraine’s military. Where is the stalemate? I am be reading that the Russian military is pushing Ukraine’s military out of various strongholds. That Russia suffered more than Ukraine is pure fantasy on the part of western news sources who also tell us that the Ukraine doesn’t have a Nazi problem and instead is a beacon of democracy.
"Zelensky is HATED in Ukraine and NATO has Nothing Left ft. The Duran."
Ukraine's coming defeat to Russia is having severe consequences on Zelensky's leadership, with reports indicating a coming coup to oust the former TIME Person of the Year.
NATO is powerless to stop it, and it appears Ukraine's biggest backer isn't eager to do so.
Mr. Z said he knows America won't abandon them. He is obviously a very deluded individual, or he doesn't know America's history of staying the course when things are not going their way. And what happens to US puppets.
The loss of the flower of Ukrainian & Russian Youth by the Old Leaders sending them to die in Trenches must stop. History will not look kindly upon them..! imho
"End ‘magical thinking’ about defeating Russia – US experts"
Western leaders must give up their “magical thinking” about defeating Russia in Ukraine, two analysts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have claimed in an essay published by the Wall Street Journal. It’s unrealistic to expect Moscow to lose the Ukraine conflict.
The Washington think tank’s authors, Eugene Rumer and Andrew Weiss, wrote In November 2023, that... "contrary to the hopes of Western officials who speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be ousted in a “palace coup,” Moscow has maintained popular support for its Ukraine strategy while overcoming efforts to cripple its economy."
"Officials in the West “have indulged all too often in magical thinking – betting on sanctions, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive or the transfer of new types of weapons to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table.”
“What Western leaders conspicuously haven’t done is level with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened, revisionist Russia,” they noted."
“More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new national security strategy for Russia,” they claimed."
“The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today, Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.”
"Although Rumer and Weiss claimed that “none of this should come as a surprise,” the publication of the piece marks a continuation of a new, more critical trend in mainstream US media regarding Ukraine’s prospects in its conflict with Russia.
The tone has shifted amid widespread recognition that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky faces wavering allies, enormous casualties, and growing fissures within his leadership team."
The 1st Time The Washington Post suspended me for a week was for making this comment on the WAR February 28, 4 days after it started;
When Western governments declare publicly it’s goal and objective it to destroy the Russian Economy without using bombs, Armageddon/WWIII has already started.
History proves it’s much easier to start Wars than to end them. It took 20 years and $2 TRILLION for the US to extricate itself from the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan.
I expect Putin will use the ‘nuclear option’ in the Economic War, and will turn off Nord Stream II and all oil and gas pipelines passing through Ukraine to keep Western Europe’s Economies going.
The question will be who can endure material privation and want longer? Russians who are accustomed to it, or Western Europeans who aren’t, when both the Russian and European Economies crash?
The Russian Economy didn't crash because Putin was astute enough to recognize what the US West was up to with the 2014 Coup, and started preparing Russia to survive despite the US Economic WAR against Russia.
"that Ukraine has a strong chance of winning" - how many more young Ukrainian men must be killed before they come to their senses ~ there is nothing left to win.
Ukraine is rubble and millions have left their country to never return.
This tired old meme that "Putin is Hitler" is a load of bovine excrement.
Putin got into power in 2000. Is that right? Nearly a quarter of a century ago now!
Putin won the election held on 26 March 2000 with 53 percent of the total votes.
Let's look at how many countries he has militarily intervened in in the 23-years since?
Russia intervened in the two bloody secessionist wars in Chechnya. The hostilities began in 1994, (before Putin), when Moscow went into this territory that had proclaimed its independence in 1991. A month before the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, signed the demise of the USSR. The intervention ended in 1996 with the withdrawal of the Russian Army, the disarmament of the guerrilla, and initiating a process of self-determination. A chain of attacks occurred in 1999 in Russia and in the neighboring Russian Republic of Dagestan, which Moscow attributed to Chechen terrorists. In February 2000 Russia seized Grozny. Hostilities continued, which the Putin's Kremlin officially ended in 2009.
In fact, a large part of Putin's fame stemmed from his law-and-order image and his unmoved resolve to the Second part of this Chechen War.
In 2008 Georgian troops attacked Tskhinval, the capital of South Ossetia. This triggered the intervention of Russian military forces in support of the South Ossetian militias and forced the Georgian's to withdraw. The conflict lasted five days. Two weeks later, Russia recognized the independence of the two territories and its troops were withdrawn.
In 2012 the Kyrgyzstan government asked Russia to send peacekeepers to control the situation in the city of Osh, where armed clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks occurred. Russian troops have remained in Kyrgyzstan ever since and has been Kyrgyzstan's main ally since. In 2017 the two countries agreed to extend the Russian presence for another 15 years.
In 2015 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad requested military assistance from Russia. Initiating Russian Air Force airstrikes against Islamic State (ISIS) positions. In December 2017 Putin announced the defeat of ISIS in Syria as the last jihadist positions on both sides of the Euphrates River were destroyed. On December 11, Putin ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops.
On January 2, 2022 Kazakhstan was the scene of massive protests, which resulted in riots in Almaty. The largest city in Kazakhstan, with a population of over two million. Repressed by Kazakh forces, over 10,000 were arrested. The country’s president, Kasim-Yomart Tokayev, requested help from the Russian-led post-Soviet military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), to quell the terrorist threat. The organization’s members sent 2,000 troops, mostly Russian, who left the country days later, after order had been restored.
Ukraine. No need to summarize Putin's February 2022 SMO for Bracing Views readers eh! Without the Yanks pouring zillions of dollars into this proxy war to defeat Russia, Putin would have achieved his goals in months and withdrawn all Russian troops. In fact, early on he was ready to sign a peace agreement when Boris Johnson persuaded the corrupt Zelensky not to sign and to fight to the last dead Ukrainian. I am sure Bracing View's readers agree that to argue that Putin has been the aggressor here is grossly intellectually dishonest.
What a pathetic list eh! Five cases, with in all cases Russia being invited to intervene.
Bill, has this amateur war historian, who used Google and Wiki for his research over the last year, got this all wrong?
Have I missed any Russian interventions under Putin? Thanks
I agree with most of your post except Putin will not give up Crimea and the Eastern territory now annexed to Russia.
Ukraine didn't give a damn about the Russian speaking Civilian majority rejecting the 2014 US-CIA Coup/Regime Change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly Ukraine government.
The US proxy Ukraine government was shelling the Civilians in the Donbas since the 2014 Coup killing thousands.
It was the last straw for Putin when, in the week prior to the Russian SMO of February 24, Ukraine provoked the WAR, increasing the shelling of those Russian speaking Civilians with Truce Violations the OSCE was monitoring as a result of Minsk I & II, reaching up to 2000 a Day.
I had written that essay about a year and a half ago when Putin's SMO was getting the West's panties all in a knot saying he was going to go on and conquer Europe!
And you know people still believe that. The Brits in particular are terribly Russophobic.
As for Crimea, yep you are right, but was that annexing in Putin's time? I need to research that.
You reckon Biden is going to use the 3-soldiers killed in Syria as an excuse to start a war with Iran? Shades of The Gulf of Tonkin incident eh! I surely hope not. Mat Hoh and Glenn Greenwald think that will be disastrous.
Like Col. Douglas Macgregor, I want him to just pull all 57,000 US troops out of the Middle East ~ like Trump tried to do, and the Generals ignored him! Right?
EDIT: Big debate going on here as to whether New Zealand should stop funding UNHWR. I hope we keep funding it. That 12 out of 30,000 employees may have done wrong is a ridiculous excuse eh?
Heather Cox has made a fortune with her folksy Substack that weaves American history lore into current events. Ok, so she suffers from a severe case of TDS, which one of her devoted readers does not? But when she speaks out of foreign policy, it is obvious that she is completely lost and has no more insights than Donald Trump himself.
Just repeating what another commenter said- Russia is beating Ukraine in all metrics. I thought you were joking when you referred to a stalemate.
Also a reminder as to why this all started and why many of us consider Russia's actions as anti-imperialist and pro-humanity- The US government has been running Ukraine since 2014. This US - controlled government has been shooting and killing Russian-Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine since 2014. 14,000 dead. Innocent people who just happen to speak Russian and have more of a relationship with Russia than they do with Ukraine.
Many in Russia were frustrated that Putin didn't move to protect these people sooner.
Please read Consortium News and Antiwar.com for more accurate information on the war. There's a Substack writer called Simplicius the Thinker who writes very detailed write ups. I don't agree with this guy's politics, but he certainly seems to have inside information. And a lot of media links to support his writings.
Another informative article by Jonathan cook who resided and reported from the original Nazareth for years, where Jesus grew up.
A Jewish only settlement called Upper Nazareth looks down on Biblical Nazareth.
'In waging war on the UN refugee agency, the West is openly siding with Israeli genocide'
Israel has long plotted the downfall of UNRWA, aware that it is one of the biggest obstacles to eradicating the Palestinians as a people
There is an important background to the decision by the United States and other leading western states, the UK among them, to freeze funding to the United Nations’ Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the main channel by which the UN disseminates food and welfare services to the most desperate and destitute Palestinians.
The funding cut – which has been also adopted by Germany, France, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Italy, Australia and Finland – was imposed even though the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on Friday that Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza. The World Court judges quoted at length UN officials who warned that Israel’s actions had left almost all of the enclave’s 2.3 million inhabitants on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, including famine.
The West’s flimsy pretext for what amounts to a war on UNRWA is that Israel claims 12 local UN staff – out of 13,000 – are implicated in Hamas’ break-out from the open-air prison of Gaza on October 7. The sole evidence appears to be coerced confessions, likely extracted through torture, from Palestinian fighters captured by Israel that day.
The UN immediately sacked all the accused staff, seemingly without due process. We can assume that was because the refugee agency was afraid its already threadbare lifeline to the people of Gaza, as well as millions of other Palestinian refugees across the region – in the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria – would be further threatened. It need not have worried. Western donor states cut their funding anyway, plunging Gaza deeper into calamity.........................
For those following the Israeli-Arab WAR over Palestine since 1948, the longest WAR in our living Generations, 76 Years, it's obvious watching TV it's now in it's Death Throes, also known as ARMAGEDDON, the Battle of the Great Day of God Almighty, the 2nd FINAL SOLUTION!
This is a very informative interview of Jeremy Hammond the real EXPERT on the many Israeli-Palestinian WARS in Gaza the MSM never invites to air his perceptions and inform the Public. I like it because he has the same perceptions of the situation I have been sharing here and elsewhere for quite a while.
Sharing the link now, I'm only half way through the 75 minute interview.
Hopefully not that soon! It's up to all the People on Earth to prevent ARMAGEDDON from happening as it's written in the Revelation we can see unfolding on this Earth TODAY!
And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. (false beliefs about God in Judaism, Christianity, Islam, and Atheism)
For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the KINGS of the earth (Billionaires, Presidents, Prime Ministers, CEOs, and other IDOLS of the People) and of the whole world, (the rest of us) to gather them to the Battle of that Great Day of God Almighty.
Behold, I come as a thief. (when you least expect it) Blessed is he that watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame.
And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue ARMAGEDDON.
(Located in Roman OCCUPIED Palestine when Christ walked the land and Israel disappeared some 700 years earlier, now located in Israel recreated from the Bible in 1948. Now it's Israeli OCCUPIED Palestine these 2000 years later)
I am not an athiest I much prefer the term agnostic Ray. I believe in Spinoza's God-- one life is enough for me. A religious nonbeliever I am if you will...
A banana is an interesting metaphor, Fireman, for what the Christ says, 'Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for you make clean the outside of the cup and of the platter, but within they are full of extortion and excess.'
The scribes and Pharisees were the part of the Jewish Religious Establishment of those Times. Religious Establishment has not changed much in the intervening years. You can understand why the Religious Establishment wanted to silence The Christ speaking to the Public like that.
Pope Francis I named himself after Francis of Assisi shown in this clip appearing before Pope Innocent III in the Year of The Lord 1210. It took 800 years for a Pope to attempt to walk in the footsteps of the original Francis.
There were 3 Popes in 1985. Pope John Paul I was elected on the death of Pope Paul VI. He was the 1st Pope to call himself the 1st since Pope Landro I in the Year of the Lord 913. Then came another 1st, Pope Francis in 2013.
Watching the clip, it's obvious the way to Power and Wealth in those Times was through the Church: https://youtu.be/t-msmuDZfRs
"Biden said the White House sees Iran as responsible for supplying the weapons" Such delusional hypocrisy coming from the BIGGEST ARMS MERCHANT in the History of Nations, making a KILLING off the Ukraine and Gaza WARS.
If the US attacks Iran for supplying weapons to proxies, that will open the door for Russia that has shown great restraint so far, to attack US/NATO supplying weapons to it's proxy Ukraine, leading to ARMAGEDDON, the Battle of the Great Day of God Almighty described in Revelation 16:13-16.
There will be no winners in a Nuclear Exchange.
Are the lives of 3 American soldiers worth more than the 25,000 Palestinian lives Israel, with the unqualified support of the US, is massacring?
Attacks on US bases in the Middle East started AFTER the Israeli murderous destruction of Gaza in the most blatant Ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their land this world can see in Real Time unfolding on TV.
All the so called Iran proxies say attacks on US Forces in the Middle East will stop when the Israeli massacre of Palestinians in Gaza stops, and only the US has the leverage to stop Israel by stopping the supply of weapons.
Change is on the Way for the Good or Evil depending on the People's choice.
'How To Read the ICJ Decision and End Genocide, War and Settler Colonialism'
A better understanding of the legalese inherent to international law mandates reveals the tools activists can use to organize more strategically for Palestinian freedom.
In order to not lose sight of the ultimate goal — an end to the genocide, war and settler colonialism in Palestine — a better understanding of the ICJ decision is crucial. Here then, are answers to four of the most common questions stemming from the legalese inherent to international law mandates. As you’ll see, this better understanding reveals the tools activists can use to organize more strategically............
The Grayzone's Aaron Mate and Max Blumenthal cover Ukraine's downing of a Russian plane carrying Ukrainian soldiers on their way to be released in a prisoner exchange, and Washington's absurd justifications for continuing the proxy war in the face of disastrous defeats.
Is the Russia-Ukraine War "stalemated"? Which side is "winning"? Is Putin on the brink of total victory?
A couple of readers have suggested Russia is clearly winning and that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. My honest response is that I don't know.
Both sides have suffered heavy casualties. Both sides seem bogged down in static warfare that resembles World War I on the Western Front.
Of course, it's true that Russia has captured territory. It's true that Russia has the advantage of numbers. It's possible that a major Russian offensive in the spring could be decisive. It's also possible that Ukrainian resistance will continue to remain stalwart. I don't think it's likely that a Ukrainian offensive will break the Russian lines and lead to a Russian collapse this year.
What I want to see is a diplomatic settlement that ends the killing on both sides. I'm not rooting for either side in this war. I'm rooting for peace, which I believe will benefit both sides.
"Zelensky Hanging By a Thread, Zaluzhny Sacking Debacle, Opponents Circle, Russian Tanks Advance on All Fronts"
Listen to Alexander Mercouris for any length of time Bill~ then you will know the situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5352xbdM64g
The Ukrainians say they will never negotiate ~ at 1:13:22
Dennis, how do you know his account is 100% accurate?
I trust Alexander. He has seldom been wrong. Not 100% - but always close.
And he is the go-to commentator for many folks in the know.
Agrees with Scott Ritter, Col Douglas Macgregor, Lawrence Wilkerson the retired Army Colonel and former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell, and Ray McGovern among others.
Thats good enough for me, Bill.
And Alexander is highly sort after for interviews by many credible internet sites.
And you heard the Ukrainians say they will NEVER negotiate, eh?
Only time will tell eh.
Take care
I agree on Lawrence Wilkerson. I agree on Ray McGovern. I've talked to both of them. Good, honest, guys.
I've seen Scott Ritter a lot on YouTube and appreciate his outspokenness. More than some, he has an ax to grind.
Alexander Mercouris: people say he's anti-west, pro-Russia. A quick Google search reveals he was disbarred, suggesting a serious error in judgment.
It's OK with me if you "trust" him. But sometimes we "trust" people simply because they agree with our own biases and views.
Perhaps the people I trust most of all are those who are willing to disagree with me (with good reasons, of course).
Yep, Scott Ritter is a pedophile with an ax to grind, and Alexander Mercouris is a Putin Puppet who made ONE error of judgement. Suggesting it was serious shows you have not studied what really happened.
Better throw the baby out with the bath water then eh!
And more than sometimes we "distrust" people simply because they disagree with our biases and views. Like you just did with Alexander.
Col. Douglas Macgregor - no comment??
Dennis, you're being argumentative and putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Ritter was a "pedophile" -- that's your accusation. Mercouris -- a "Putin puppet" -- again, your words. And I admit I'm not an expert on British law -- are you? Please tell me "what really happened."
I don't "distrust" Alexander, but I'm not sure why I should trust everything he says about the Russia-Ukraine War. What makes him the font of truth here?
COL Macgregor--I've heard him talk; his views, I think, are worthy of being heard.
86,141 views. Streamed live on Jan 30, 2024
Larry Johnson: Neocon Delusions Over Ukraine.
“If you want to keep a secret, you must also hide it from yourself" - George Orwell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMm_aoAgSRw
My favorite reason for reading your always well written screed is that you have many times written a column that makes the case for a neutral foreign policy and ethos. Please don't stop.
I am a regular reader of your column and appreciate your overall assessment. It is refreshing to read someone who recognizes academic s... of the Cox type. She is an example of the failure of solid training as a historian and she is in good company. Graduate history education is not like the one I experienced in the late sixties. But I am puzzled by your frequent mentioning of a stalemate in Ukraine. You seem to either not know what is actually happening in that theater of war or deliberately overlooking the fact that Russia has defeated the Ukrainian offensive of last year, destroyed much of the Ukrainian army (see Ukraine’s desperate effort to force more people into its military - teenagers, old men, and women). The actually numbers of dead on either side we will not know for a very long time, but the evidence seems to suggest that Ukraine’s casualties far outnumber those of Russia. Ukraine won’t last more than a few weeks if military equipment doesn’t arrive from the west. This is not, in my book, a stalemate. Putin is doing to Ukraine what Stalin did to Hitler’s Wehrmacht after 1942. If Putin were not succeeding we would not hear the recent frantic statements by western leaders that Putin will not stop with Ukraine.
I have a friend who follows the war on Dailykos and he tells me the opposite: that Russia has suffered more dearly, that Ukraine has a strong chance of winning, as long as the U.S. and EU keep shoveling aid to Zelensky.
So, I'll admit I'm not sure what's happening in the war. To me, it appears to be a stalemate, with neither side able or possibly willing to win decisively.
It makes sense to me, however, that Putin is better able to sustain a stalemate, given Russia's resources (men, materiel).
Bill, you are a historian and you rely on the word of a friend who gets his information from Dailykos. If a student had written a paper for me on the basis of such flimsy sourcing he/she would have received an F. Yesterday’s German pro Ukrainian magazine FOCUS reported that Zelensky is depressed. I suggest you delve more deeply into the strategy of the Russian military. It is NOT about territory (thought they already took control of about 20% of Ukraine), but slowly and systematically grinding down Ukraine’s military. Where is the stalemate? I am be reading that the Russian military is pushing Ukraine’s military out of various strongholds. That Russia suffered more than Ukraine is pure fantasy on the part of western news sources who also tell us that the Ukraine doesn’t have a Nazi problem and instead is a beacon of democracy.
"Zelensky is HATED in Ukraine and NATO has Nothing Left ft. The Duran."
Ukraine's coming defeat to Russia is having severe consequences on Zelensky's leadership, with reports indicating a coming coup to oust the former TIME Person of the Year.
NATO is powerless to stop it, and it appears Ukraine's biggest backer isn't eager to do so.
Mr. Z said he knows America won't abandon them. He is obviously a very deluded individual, or he doesn't know America's history of staying the course when things are not going their way. And what happens to US puppets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYQdpKirT_I
The loss of the flower of Ukrainian & Russian Youth by the Old Leaders sending them to die in Trenches must stop. History will not look kindly upon them..! imho
"End ‘magical thinking’ about defeating Russia – US experts"
Western leaders must give up their “magical thinking” about defeating Russia in Ukraine, two analysts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have claimed in an essay published by the Wall Street Journal. It’s unrealistic to expect Moscow to lose the Ukraine conflict.
The Washington think tank’s authors, Eugene Rumer and Andrew Weiss, wrote In November 2023, that... "contrary to the hopes of Western officials who speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be ousted in a “palace coup,” Moscow has maintained popular support for its Ukraine strategy while overcoming efforts to cripple its economy."
"Officials in the West “have indulged all too often in magical thinking – betting on sanctions, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive or the transfer of new types of weapons to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table.”
“What Western leaders conspicuously haven’t done is level with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened, revisionist Russia,” they noted."
“More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new national security strategy for Russia,” they claimed."
“The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today, Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.”
"Although Rumer and Weiss claimed that “none of this should come as a surprise,” the publication of the piece marks a continuation of a new, more critical trend in mainstream US media regarding Ukraine’s prospects in its conflict with Russia.
The tone has shifted amid widespread recognition that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky faces wavering allies, enormous casualties, and growing fissures within his leadership team."
https://www.rt.com/news/587447-wsj-oped-end-magical-thinking-russian-defeat/
The 1st Time The Washington Post suspended me for a week was for making this comment on the WAR February 28, 4 days after it started;
When Western governments declare publicly it’s goal and objective it to destroy the Russian Economy without using bombs, Armageddon/WWIII has already started.
History proves it’s much easier to start Wars than to end them. It took 20 years and $2 TRILLION for the US to extricate itself from the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan.
I expect Putin will use the ‘nuclear option’ in the Economic War, and will turn off Nord Stream II and all oil and gas pipelines passing through Ukraine to keep Western Europe’s Economies going.
The question will be who can endure material privation and want longer? Russians who are accustomed to it, or Western Europeans who aren’t, when both the Russian and European Economies crash?
The Russian Economy didn't crash because Putin was astute enough to recognize what the US West was up to with the 2014 Coup, and started preparing Russia to survive despite the US Economic WAR against Russia.
"that Ukraine has a strong chance of winning" - how many more young Ukrainian men must be killed before they come to their senses ~ there is nothing left to win.
Ukraine is rubble and millions have left their country to never return.
This tired old meme that "Putin is Hitler" is a load of bovine excrement.
Putin got into power in 2000. Is that right? Nearly a quarter of a century ago now!
Putin won the election held on 26 March 2000 with 53 percent of the total votes.
Let's look at how many countries he has militarily intervened in in the 23-years since?
Russia intervened in the two bloody secessionist wars in Chechnya. The hostilities began in 1994, (before Putin), when Moscow went into this territory that had proclaimed its independence in 1991. A month before the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, signed the demise of the USSR. The intervention ended in 1996 with the withdrawal of the Russian Army, the disarmament of the guerrilla, and initiating a process of self-determination. A chain of attacks occurred in 1999 in Russia and in the neighboring Russian Republic of Dagestan, which Moscow attributed to Chechen terrorists. In February 2000 Russia seized Grozny. Hostilities continued, which the Putin's Kremlin officially ended in 2009.
In fact, a large part of Putin's fame stemmed from his law-and-order image and his unmoved resolve to the Second part of this Chechen War.
In 2008 Georgian troops attacked Tskhinval, the capital of South Ossetia. This triggered the intervention of Russian military forces in support of the South Ossetian militias and forced the Georgian's to withdraw. The conflict lasted five days. Two weeks later, Russia recognized the independence of the two territories and its troops were withdrawn.
In 2012 the Kyrgyzstan government asked Russia to send peacekeepers to control the situation in the city of Osh, where armed clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks occurred. Russian troops have remained in Kyrgyzstan ever since and has been Kyrgyzstan's main ally since. In 2017 the two countries agreed to extend the Russian presence for another 15 years.
In 2015 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad requested military assistance from Russia. Initiating Russian Air Force airstrikes against Islamic State (ISIS) positions. In December 2017 Putin announced the defeat of ISIS in Syria as the last jihadist positions on both sides of the Euphrates River were destroyed. On December 11, Putin ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops.
On January 2, 2022 Kazakhstan was the scene of massive protests, which resulted in riots in Almaty. The largest city in Kazakhstan, with a population of over two million. Repressed by Kazakh forces, over 10,000 were arrested. The country’s president, Kasim-Yomart Tokayev, requested help from the Russian-led post-Soviet military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), to quell the terrorist threat. The organization’s members sent 2,000 troops, mostly Russian, who left the country days later, after order had been restored.
Ukraine. No need to summarize Putin's February 2022 SMO for Bracing Views readers eh! Without the Yanks pouring zillions of dollars into this proxy war to defeat Russia, Putin would have achieved his goals in months and withdrawn all Russian troops. In fact, early on he was ready to sign a peace agreement when Boris Johnson persuaded the corrupt Zelensky not to sign and to fight to the last dead Ukrainian. I am sure Bracing View's readers agree that to argue that Putin has been the aggressor here is grossly intellectually dishonest.
What a pathetic list eh! Five cases, with in all cases Russia being invited to intervene.
Bill, has this amateur war historian, who used Google and Wiki for his research over the last year, got this all wrong?
Have I missed any Russian interventions under Putin? Thanks
I agree with most of your post except Putin will not give up Crimea and the Eastern territory now annexed to Russia.
Ukraine didn't give a damn about the Russian speaking Civilian majority rejecting the 2014 US-CIA Coup/Regime Change of the Democratically Elected Russian friendly Ukraine government.
The US proxy Ukraine government was shelling the Civilians in the Donbas since the 2014 Coup killing thousands.
It was the last straw for Putin when, in the week prior to the Russian SMO of February 24, Ukraine provoked the WAR, increasing the shelling of those Russian speaking Civilians with Truce Violations the OSCE was monitoring as a result of Minsk I & II, reaching up to 2000 a Day.
Thanks Ray,
I had written that essay about a year and a half ago when Putin's SMO was getting the West's panties all in a knot saying he was going to go on and conquer Europe!
And you know people still believe that. The Brits in particular are terribly Russophobic.
As for Crimea, yep you are right, but was that annexing in Putin's time? I need to research that.
You reckon Biden is going to use the 3-soldiers killed in Syria as an excuse to start a war with Iran? Shades of The Gulf of Tonkin incident eh! I surely hope not. Mat Hoh and Glenn Greenwald think that will be disastrous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khIocrC4mEc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCeMIUuTSLo
Like Col. Douglas Macgregor, I want him to just pull all 57,000 US troops out of the Middle East ~ like Trump tried to do, and the Generals ignored him! Right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK5ZZsilAc4
Hope you are well my friend.
Dennis
EDIT: Big debate going on here as to whether New Zealand should stop funding UNHWR. I hope we keep funding it. That 12 out of 30,000 employees may have done wrong is a ridiculous excuse eh?
Oh oh! https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/507907/no-more-aid-for-un-aid-agency-until-peters-satisfied-luxon
Heather Cox has made a fortune with her folksy Substack that weaves American history lore into current events. Ok, so she suffers from a severe case of TDS, which one of her devoted readers does not? But when she speaks out of foreign policy, it is obvious that she is completely lost and has no more insights than Donald Trump himself.
I need to be more "folksy." :-)
Maybe add some country music
Yes.., less taciturn and bookish-- maybe put in a Map of Florida..! lol
I'll goon it up!
Bill Astore; "The Toughest Enforcer in the Federal League!!!" lmao
Hey! Dickie Dunn wrote that!
Just repeating what another commenter said- Russia is beating Ukraine in all metrics. I thought you were joking when you referred to a stalemate.
Also a reminder as to why this all started and why many of us consider Russia's actions as anti-imperialist and pro-humanity- The US government has been running Ukraine since 2014. This US - controlled government has been shooting and killing Russian-Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine since 2014. 14,000 dead. Innocent people who just happen to speak Russian and have more of a relationship with Russia than they do with Ukraine.
Many in Russia were frustrated that Putin didn't move to protect these people sooner.
Please read Consortium News and Antiwar.com for more accurate information on the war. There's a Substack writer called Simplicius the Thinker who writes very detailed write ups. I don't agree with this guy's politics, but he certainly seems to have inside information. And a lot of media links to support his writings.
Excellent summary Rachel. Thanks
I must research Simplicius the Thinker.
Babylon Bee knows all: https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-cleverly-distracts-from-civil-war-by-starting-world-war
Thank You, Alex, for sharing that. That is the best laugh i've had in a good, good while.
utter hypocracy. the forever war folks are sociopaths
The French and CIA should have opened a stock market not a war in Vietnam.
And
A good film
The Quiet American
Another informative article by Jonathan cook who resided and reported from the original Nazareth for years, where Jesus grew up.
A Jewish only settlement called Upper Nazareth looks down on Biblical Nazareth.
'In waging war on the UN refugee agency, the West is openly siding with Israeli genocide'
Israel has long plotted the downfall of UNRWA, aware that it is one of the biggest obstacles to eradicating the Palestinians as a people
There is an important background to the decision by the United States and other leading western states, the UK among them, to freeze funding to the United Nations’ Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the main channel by which the UN disseminates food and welfare services to the most desperate and destitute Palestinians.
The funding cut – which has been also adopted by Germany, France, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Italy, Australia and Finland – was imposed even though the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on Friday that Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza. The World Court judges quoted at length UN officials who warned that Israel’s actions had left almost all of the enclave’s 2.3 million inhabitants on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, including famine.
The West’s flimsy pretext for what amounts to a war on UNRWA is that Israel claims 12 local UN staff – out of 13,000 – are implicated in Hamas’ break-out from the open-air prison of Gaza on October 7. The sole evidence appears to be coerced confessions, likely extracted through torture, from Palestinian fighters captured by Israel that day.
The UN immediately sacked all the accused staff, seemingly without due process. We can assume that was because the refugee agency was afraid its already threadbare lifeline to the people of Gaza, as well as millions of other Palestinian refugees across the region – in the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria – would be further threatened. It need not have worried. Western donor states cut their funding anyway, plunging Gaza deeper into calamity.........................
https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/
Evidently, the US West has abandoned one more Democratic Right for Israel.
Just on an Israeli allegation, UNRWA is presumed Guilty until proven Innocent, with punishment before the Facts are known.
For those following the Israeli-Arab WAR over Palestine since 1948, the longest WAR in our living Generations, 76 Years, it's obvious watching TV it's now in it's Death Throes, also known as ARMAGEDDON, the Battle of the Great Day of God Almighty, the 2nd FINAL SOLUTION!
This is a very informative interview of Jeremy Hammond the real EXPERT on the many Israeli-Palestinian WARS in Gaza the MSM never invites to air his perceptions and inform the Public. I like it because he has the same perceptions of the situation I have been sharing here and elsewhere for quite a while.
Sharing the link now, I'm only half way through the 75 minute interview.
https://youtu.be/D1nitcQIhys?si=66JsownelmPuPzFL
His Judgement cometh-- And That Right Soon....!
Hopefully not that soon! It's up to all the People on Earth to prevent ARMAGEDDON from happening as it's written in the Revelation we can see unfolding on this Earth TODAY!
And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. (false beliefs about God in Judaism, Christianity, Islam, and Atheism)
For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the KINGS of the earth (Billionaires, Presidents, Prime Ministers, CEOs, and other IDOLS of the People) and of the whole world, (the rest of us) to gather them to the Battle of that Great Day of God Almighty.
Behold, I come as a thief. (when you least expect it) Blessed is he that watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame.
And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue ARMAGEDDON.
(Located in Roman OCCUPIED Palestine when Christ walked the land and Israel disappeared some 700 years earlier, now located in Israel recreated from the Bible in 1948. Now it's Israeli OCCUPIED Palestine these 2000 years later)
I am not an athiest I much prefer the term agnostic Ray. I believe in Spinoza's God-- one life is enough for me. A religious nonbeliever I am if you will...
While I was replying to your comment, Fireman, it was not a reply just to you. Are you saying you're more Spiritual than Religiously Dogmatic?
Yes.., in regards to myself think of a banana as an Analogy if you will the skin being religion the inside being spirituality-- that is me...
A banana is an interesting metaphor, Fireman, for what the Christ says, 'Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for you make clean the outside of the cup and of the platter, but within they are full of extortion and excess.'
The scribes and Pharisees were the part of the Jewish Religious Establishment of those Times. Religious Establishment has not changed much in the intervening years. You can understand why the Religious Establishment wanted to silence The Christ speaking to the Public like that.
Pope Francis I named himself after Francis of Assisi shown in this clip appearing before Pope Innocent III in the Year of The Lord 1210. It took 800 years for a Pope to attempt to walk in the footsteps of the original Francis.
There were 3 Popes in 1985. Pope John Paul I was elected on the death of Pope Paul VI. He was the 1st Pope to call himself the 1st since Pope Landro I in the Year of the Lord 913. Then came another 1st, Pope Francis in 2013.
Watching the clip, it's obvious the way to Power and Wealth in those Times was through the Church: https://youtu.be/t-msmuDZfRs
Why send money to Kiev?
Germany and France should be mobilizing because if Putin is so ambitious expending money with no mobilization will be resources and time wasted.
Do they believe doing the same as the past two years will get better results using a much depleted Ukraine soldier force?
The safe response now is mobilize, more resources for Kiev are not security.
Babylon Bee again: https://babylonbee.com/news/nation-has-vague-distant-memory-of-some-old-rule-where-the-president-couldnt-just-declare-war-on-anyone-he-wanted
"Biden said the White House sees Iran as responsible for supplying the weapons" Such delusional hypocrisy coming from the BIGGEST ARMS MERCHANT in the History of Nations, making a KILLING off the Ukraine and Gaza WARS.
If the US attacks Iran for supplying weapons to proxies, that will open the door for Russia that has shown great restraint so far, to attack US/NATO supplying weapons to it's proxy Ukraine, leading to ARMAGEDDON, the Battle of the Great Day of God Almighty described in Revelation 16:13-16.
There will be no winners in a Nuclear Exchange.
Are the lives of 3 American soldiers worth more than the 25,000 Palestinian lives Israel, with the unqualified support of the US, is massacring?
Attacks on US bases in the Middle East started AFTER the Israeli murderous destruction of Gaza in the most blatant Ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their land this world can see in Real Time unfolding on TV.
All the so called Iran proxies say attacks on US Forces in the Middle East will stop when the Israeli massacre of Palestinians in Gaza stops, and only the US has the leverage to stop Israel by stopping the supply of weapons.
The Destruction scene from the movie THE DAY AFTER Kansas City was incinerated in a Nuclear Holocaust: https://youtu.be/7VG2aJyIFrA?si=SNd9eqEFdOkk6vqc
Thinkers know THE DAY AFTER will be TOO LATE!
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/moment-no-return-imminent-biden-has-decided-response-says-iran-supplied-weapons-used
Change is on the Way for the Good or Evil depending on the People's choice.
'How To Read the ICJ Decision and End Genocide, War and Settler Colonialism'
A better understanding of the legalese inherent to international law mandates reveals the tools activists can use to organize more strategically for Palestinian freedom.
In order to not lose sight of the ultimate goal — an end to the genocide, war and settler colonialism in Palestine — a better understanding of the ICJ decision is crucial. Here then, are answers to four of the most common questions stemming from the legalese inherent to international law mandates. As you’ll see, this better understanding reveals the tools activists can use to organize more strategically............
https://portside.org/2024-01-30/how-read-icj-decision-and-end-genocide-war-and-settler-colonialism
The Grayzone's Aaron Mate and Max Blumenthal cover Ukraine's downing of a Russian plane carrying Ukrainian soldiers on their way to be released in a prisoner exchange, and Washington's absurd justifications for continuing the proxy war in the face of disastrous defeats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3zkCNFruH4